Further concessions by Tehran would mean limiting its sovereignty

By Vestnik Kavkaza

The Secretary General of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamhani, said at the end of the first round of the next stage of negotiations between Iran and the "Six" that Tehran does not intend to restore diplomatic ties with Washington; The parties are only discussing Iran's nuclear program during the negotiations with the "Six" international mediators. In the previous round, which ended on November 24, a final agreement wasn’t reached. This time, the negotiators hope to develop a policy framework for future settlement by the end of March, and to complete the signing of a comprehensive agreement before June 30, 2015.

Meanwhile, the deputy director of the Institute for Forecasting and Political Settlement, Alexander Kuznetsov, said that delaying negotiations expands Western abilities to put pressure on Iran. "By the end of the year a final agreement has not been reached," Kuznetsov said, citing pressure on the US's Middle East allies - especially Israel and Saudi Arabia. "There was information that, when the last round of negotiations was held in Vienna this November, Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal flew there. He arrived for just 4 hours, during which time he did not leave the airport, and right at the airport he negotiated with John Kerry. The exact conversation remains a mystery to us, but apparently the theme was about the Iranian nuclear issue, and the Saudis insisted on the United States not removing their sanctions against Iran yet. So it seems that America gave Saudi Arabia these six months out to settle Iranian-Saudi contradictions," Kuznetsov said.

According to Kuznetsov, Iran made the maximum concessions, and further concessions would mean limiting Iranian sovereignty: "We can see a situation in which the Iranian economy collapses under all the great dependence of the negotiation process. By squeezing Iran in the negotiation process, the West gains more influence, including influence on the economic decisions of Hassan Rouhani's cabinet regarding the disposal of Iranian funds and Iranian oil exports."

The fall in oil prices has also been a serious blow to the Iranian economy. "Because of the sanctions, Iran at the time reduced its exports by 30%. According to some economic calculations, the optimal price that affords the Iranian government to completely fulfill its social obligations is 135 dollars per barrel. But today we have a price of 60 dollars per barrel. This has negatively affected Iran, causing lots of difficulties, including a substantial rise in the price of bread in Tehran. If this continues, it will affect the Iranian position towards ever greater concessions to the West," suggested Kuznetsov.

He predicts that the Iranian nuclear issue will be resolved by July next year, but there are two questions remaining: Where will the parties achieve compromise, and what kind of relationship will be built between Iran and the United States (both in the Middle East, and in relation to Russia and the CIS region)? "The economic rapprochement between Iran and Russia that was announced in early 2014, the famous oil deal - all this is somehow slipping. It is not clear yet how the situation will be implemented and develop. Sometimes it seems that it will not be implemented or develop at all. And this is certainly alarming."