Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung: Putin would benefit from a Greek exit from the Eurozone

By Vestnik Kavkaza

"Putin will benefit from a Greek exit from the eurozone," said Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. In Germany, the debate about keeping Greece in the euro zone is being conducted solely in an economic context. This is understandable, because we are talking about billions of dollars of credits, for which the German taxpayers are responsible, and about the implications for monetary union. But for the full calculation of costs and benefits, political factors should also be considered. For some reason, society says surprisingly little about them, although these factors, in theory, should play a greater role in the strategic thinking of politicians.

The first aspect that should be considered is the impact Greece's exit from the monetary union would have on the country's stability. Even supporters of an exit are taking into account that the Greek economy, in such a case, will experience a heavy crash. The strong import dependence of the country could even lead to shortages of food and medicine. Nor can we rule out the possibility that Greece will remain for many years a "government failure” (failed state) with high levels of crime, riots, and mass migration from the country. These processes can quickly spread to neighboring countries and become palpable even in northern Europe. Could such a country provide protection of the external borders of the European Union? Will Greece in this case meet the requirements of the internal market?

A Greek exit from the euro zone also raises the question of its imminent release from the Schengen zone and the EU. After all, according to the contracts, you can’t just leave the euro zone, you can only leave the European Union. This leads us to the second problem, which cannot be underestimated: what consequences would Greece leaving the eurozone have for the unity of the remaining 18 member countries of the eurozone and the 27 EU Member States? Despite all the contradictions between the members of the European Union since its inception, there has always been a fundamental confidence about the fact that, even in the most difficult situations, they can come to a common denominator. Never before have the contradictions led to one of the countries having to leave the EU. The exit of Greece is likely to lead to increase levels of mistrust and reduced solidarity among EU countries. For the Union, based on the principles of collaboration and cooperation, it would be a heavy burden. Also, the leading role of Germany will suffer, if most of the blame for the failure of the talks are assigned to the federal government.

But perhaps the greatest danger in a Greek exit from the EU lies in the strategic implications of such a move. The exclusion of Athens from the European family would inevitably lead to the fact that the central country in the Balkans will be looking for new partners. And among them, the first candidate would be Russia, regardless of what kind of government will be in Greece at this point. Russia has financial interests in the Balkans, and between the two Orthodox countries there are cultural proximities. For President Putin, a union with Greece would be an important geopolitical success, because to the process of Russia's return to central and southern Europe, another important country will be added. In this case, Putin would gain a lever, by which he would be able to "pull out" all the Balkans from the western camp. And then, practical implications for the EU will be coming: for example, the Trans-Adriatic pipeline, that will deliver gas to Europe from the Caspian Sea, bypassing Russia, must pass through Greek territory.