What is the danger of Islamic State?

By Vestnik Kavkaza

Yesterday at the visiting session of the Security Council of Russia in Pyatigorsk, Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev said that in the ranks of terrorist groups abroad many mercenaries are of Russian origin, who pose a great threat when they are returning from the hot spots. According to him, these people can bring skills of sophisticated terror to our land, which are also characterized by the group, which calls itself Islamic State.

Meanwhile, as the head of the Center for Asia and the Middle East RISS Anna Glazova believes, IS is a special phenomenon, which does not quite fit into the definition of a terrorist group, IS is becoming the center of attraction for other terrorist groups in different regions – the Middle East and Central Asia, and Africa, and Southeast Asia. Many of these groups have already announced their support for IS. In particular, the extremely rigid structure of the terrorist group Boko Haram has implemented the idea of establishing a caliphate in the north-eastern part of Nigeria. Affiliated with IS structures, it has taken control of the eastern coastline of Libya and threatened the western coastline. It has caused serious concern among the Italian authorities. The combining of disparate terrorist groups, which operate in different regions, under a unified leadership, enhances the influence of IS."

Another dangerous feature of IS, was indicated by Glazova as its desire to capture strategically important areas, such as coastal zones with access to the Mediterranean Sea, Libya for example, as well as areas where there are large deposits of oil and gas, and where active development and production is occurring. "One of the most recent examples was the series of attacks on Libyan oil facilities that were committed by terrorists last week. Gaining control over energy resources not only ensures the organization's stable income, but will also allow it to make an impact on other countries that are dependent on the supply of hydrocarbons. In this context, especially among Russian experts, the possibility of penetration of Islamic terrorists from Afghanistan to Central Asia is of particular concern. Over the last few months there have been regular reports about the destabilization of the situation on the Afghan-Turkmen border, and the Tajik border. Here, some experts believe, corridors for the militants invasion of India can be prepared," Anna Glazova says.

In her view, such a scenario matches the interests of the United States, which considers the destabilization of Central Asia as a way to reduce the influence of Russia and China in the region. The expert says that it should be considered that "in the southeast of Turkmenistan, at a distance of about 200 km from the Afghan border, the world’s second-largest gas field is located, from which two major pipelines are routed. One of them - "East-West" - should run to the Caspian coast and its construction is scheduled to be completed this year. And the second is the Turkmenistan-China pipeline. Their capacity is 30 and 40 billion cubic meters per year respectively. If the rebels, either by their own decision, or under someone's influence, will be able to take control of these deposits, it would destabilize the situation not only in Turkmenistan, but would also deal a serious blow to the economic interests of consumers of Turkmen gas, China in the first place."