Georgian press review (March 20-26)

Giya Nodia, the head of the Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development, says that Georgian Dream has not kept its promises and lost many voters, the number of followers of the United National Movement remains stable, Resonance Daily reports. “There has been no research, so it would be serious to claim, using perfunctory data, that the trio of leaders would be the same as it has been for the last two years. The succession remains unchanged too. Georgian Dream remains the leader, the United National Movement is the main opposition force, followed by Burjanadze’s party. The relations between the two parties have recently changed, the rating of the government has gone downhill, maybe to a great extent, but I cannot tell how it has affected the ratings of the pursuers of the Dream. Regarding the Free Democrats, I do not think that they have major support. I can say the same about Patriots of Inashvili and Tarkhan-Mouravi. Besides them, I see no other influential political figures, the newspaper quotes Nodia. “Automatically, it is not so. The ratings of the Dream have dropped, but the voters have not filled the ranks of supporters of other parties. Those disappointed with Georgian Dream do not automatically realize that they have a new favourite. There are voters who do not like anyone. Most of them do not vote. This favours the opposition, because these votes leave the rating of the Dream. But there is still a long road ahead of the elections and I suppose we will hold early elections. People are not trying to clearly outline their priorities,” he speculates.

“If we run through the media, there is plenty of criticism of the government. But it is not conditioned by freedom of the media. Moreover, they have impartial reasons to criticize the government: the change of the lari rate and other factors that the opposition names. It all reflects the sentiment of the population and there is nothing surprising that the rating of the government has declined a little,” says Zurab Bigvav, the founder of the “Psikhoproyekt” Research and Consulting Center, a psychologist and sociologist. “The fall of the lari rate had objective circumstances independent of the government. People evaluate everything impartially. The rate does not threaten the government. The topic is not important enough to affect the state of the government,” the sociologist assures.

 “In January-February, exports dropped by 26%. There are no signs of a strengthening of the national currency. The population is still struggling with unemployment and rising prices for food. In this context, the social optimism and trust in the government is gradually switching to pessimism and distrust. Economists look to the future with hope and say that some economic indicators of February and March give reasons for optimism,” Resonance Daily notes. The Business Resonance paper conducted social polls to see whether people believe in the government’s competence in solving economic problems. 51.79% of people questioned placed no hope in the government, 39.56% are adamant that the problems will be solved, 8.63% failed to give an answer. Economists insist that stability of the currency and growth of GDP are the priorities at this point. The government has only a general vision of solutions to the problem, it says that a detailed scheme is being developed. Overall, people have hopes for privatization. Minister for Economy Giorgi Kvirikashvili plans to sell about 20 large facilities and mobilize $300 million to stabilize the lari rate. The next step would be to promote tourism in a potent commercial campaign, boost investments by directly working with investors at forums. It is clear that the government plans to reduce administrative expenses. Some investors may be freed from paying income taxes.

 “After implementation of the visa-free regime with the EU, Georgia may be hit by a migration shock. Because of the still complicated socio-economic situation in the country, the numbers of people willing to leave Georgia will grow even more. Specialists predict that it would happen in a short period. Some time after that, when our compatriots figure that maintaining themselves in Europe is not easy at all, they will return. The decision to implement the visa-free regime for Georgians in the European Union will be made at the Riga Summit in May,” Resonance Daily reports. “Many are unaware that, in conditions of a visa-free regime, staying in Europe is allowed for only 90 days in a 180-day period. But Georgian citizens, whose departure is only hindered by visa procedures, would leave Georgia immediately after implementation of the visa-free regime, for much longer than 90 days. We have such experience in Russia, when very many Georgians went to work there during the visa-free regime. The same happened in the case of Ukraine,” fears the author of the article. “A shock may very likely happen, but then, when Georgians go abroad and see beautiful offices where no one invites them, they will return. If they do decide to stay, they will engage in not-so-fruitful work. It is noteworthy that the majority of the employable population, educated people, would leave the country, which would be a bad effect on the total population of Georgia and its demography,” the newspaper quotes expert Nodar Kapanadze.

Low social approval of government, complicated economic situation, visa-free regime with EU statesGiya Nodia, the head of the Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development, says that Georgian Dream has not kept its promises and lost many voters, the number of followers of the United National Movement remains stable, Resonance Daily reports. “There has been no research, so it would be serious to claim, using perfunctory data, that the trio of leaders would be the same as it has been for the last two years. The succession remains unchanged too. Georgian Dream remains the leader, the United National Movement is the main opposition force, followed by Burjanadze’s party. The relations between the two parties have recently changed, the rating of the government has gone downhill, maybe to a great extent, but I cannot tell how it has affected the ratings of the pursuers of the Dream. Regarding the Free Democrats, I do not think that they have major support. I can say the same about Patriots of Inashvili and Tarkhan-Mouravi. Besides them, I see no other influential political figures, the newspaper quotes Nodia. “Automatically, it is not so. The ratings of the Dream have dropped, but the voters have not filled the ranks of supporters of other parties. Those disappointed with Georgian Dream do not automatically realize that they have a new favourite. There are voters who do not like anyone. Most of them do not vote. This favours the opposition, because these votes leave the rating of the Dream. But there is still a long road ahead of the elections and I suppose we will hold early elections. People are not trying to clearly outline their priorities,” he speculates.“If we run through the media, there is plenty of criticism of the government. But it is not conditioned by freedom of the media. Moreover, they have impartial reasons to criticize the government: the change of the lari rate and other factors that the opposition names. It all reflects the sentiment of the population and there is nothing surprising that the rating of the government has declined a little,” says Zurab Bigvav, the founder of the “Psikhoproyekt” Research and Consulting Center, a psychologist and sociologist. “The fall of the lari rate had objective circumstances independent of the government. People evaluate everything impartially. The rate does not threaten the government. The topic is not important enough to affect the state of the government,” the sociologist assures. “In January-February, exports dropped by 26%. There are no signs of a strengthening of the national currency. The population is still struggling with unemployment and rising prices for food. In this context, the social optimism and trust in the government is gradually switching to pessimism and distrust. Economists look to the future with hope and say that some economic indicators of February and March give reasons for optimism,” Resonance Daily notes. The Business Resonance paper conducted social polls to see whether people believe in the government’s competence in solving economic problems. 51.79% of people questioned placed no hope in the government, 39.56% are adamant that the problems will be solved, 8.63% failed to give an answer. Economists insist that stability of the currency and growth of GDP are the priorities at this point. The government has only a general vision of solutions to the problem, it says that a detailed scheme is being developed. Overall, people have hopes for privatization. Minister for Economy Giorgi Kvirikashvili plans to sell about 20 large facilities and mobilize $300 million to stabilize the lari rate. The next step would be to promote tourism in a potent commercial campaign, boost investments by directly working with investors at forums. It is clear that the government plans to reduce administrative expenses. Some investors may be freed from paying income taxes. “After implementation of the visa-free regime with the EU, Georgia may be hit by a migration shock. Because of the still complicated socio-economic situation in the country, the numbers of people willing to leave Georgia will grow even more. Specialists predict that it would happen in a short period. Some time after that, when our compatriots figure that maintaining themselves in Europe is not easy at all, they will return. The decision to implement the visa-free regime for Georgians in the European Union will be made at the Riga Summit in May,” Resonance Daily reports. “Many are unaware that, in conditions of a visa-free regime, staying in Europe is allowed for only 90 days in a 180-day period. But Georgian citizens, whose departure is only hindered by visa procedures, would leave Georgia immediately after implementation of the visa-free regime, for much longer than 90 days. We have such experience in Russia, when very many Georgians went to work there during the visa-free regime. The same happened in the case of Ukraine,” fears the author of the article. “A shock may very likely happen, but then, when Georgians go abroad and see beautiful offices where no one invites them, they will return. If they do decide to stay, they will engage in not-so-fruitful work. It is noteworthy that the majority of the employable population, educated people, would leave the country, which would be a bad effect on the total population of Georgia and its demography,” the newspaper quotes expert Nodar Kapana