Slambek Khajiyev: "The geographic situation and history will result in the formation of a common economic space in the Caucasus"

Vestnik Kavkaza's guest is the director of the Institute of Petrochemical Synthesis at the Russian Academy of Sciences, a member of the academy, Salambek Naibovich Khajiyev.

-Salambek, what are the possibilities of Russia in terms of energy cooperation with Turkey and Azerbaijan, in connection with the deteriorating international climate, in connection with the events in Ukraine?

-I think that Turkey and Russia are currently building a great relationship. It has been historically like that, already in the time of Ataturk, Turkey and Russia agreed on many issues. Therefore, this cooperation with Turkey in the field of hydrocarbons will only strengthen. It is a country with a rapidly growing economy, it needs energy, it is actually our nearest neighbor in the Black Sea. So there is a great future. As for Azerbaijan, and all the Transcaucasian countries, there are purely political problems there. If there were no political problems associated with the history of this region, of course, cooperation there would be deeper, but there are so many practical problems. There are problems with Georgia related to the autonomous republic. I could not even imagine that the people who had once said that they wanted to create their own Georgian state (and it was a fair desire, if they wanted to do it) suddenly decided that they would not allow something like this to the Ossetians or the Abkhazians. Why? I couldn't even think, imagine that they will behave this way, because if you want to do something like that, then why can't your younger brother or friend do the same? Why would you want to interfere? And Russia came to their defence. I could not imagine something like this happening in the Caucasus, because everyone considers themselves to be equal. That's the problem with Georgia. Then we have, unfortunately, a problem which hasn't been created by us, but by history, that's the problem between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which, unfortunately, and unfortunately, it won't be possible to solve it in the near future. And everyone looks to Russia: what shall we do? Politics has a strong impact there, but I believe that there is a big economic future there.

-Politics will fall by the wayside, and the economic calculations...

-The geography, history, all of it will result in the formation of a common economic space. We will come to it inevitably, if we want to develop our own countries, our own people. It is worse when we are apart and better when we are together. Territories united not by accident, but in order to preserve themselves. There is a concept of economic clusters. A proper contemporary cluster is made from 300 to 500 million people, like Europe or America. A cluster like this is developing here on the basis of the former Soviet Union, it will form inevitably.

-Yes, we see economic difficulties in the South Caucasus - in Armenia as well as Georgia. And what about Azerbaijan, you are probably familiar with the oil industrial complex of this country? What do you think about it?

-It should be noted that Azerbaijan has very serious traditions in the field of hydrocarbon raw materials, it has very serious academia, very serious engineers. It is a dynamic industry and it is Azerbaijan's benefactress.

-It is a priority industry, right?

-It is certainly its major industry, its benefactress and I see a big future for them. However, once again, the notion "become addicted" is just an empty concept. You have to realize what the country can live off. What does Germany live off? It sells various cars, tractors and trucks as well as turning lathes - this is their hobby, this is their skill. And what does Switzerland live off? Off banks, for example, chocolate and some special equipment, the Swiss make wonderful laboratory research equipment. And what about the French? Everyone has to sell something. We produce great arms, we are the second-largest arms producer in the world and these arms are great. And in addition, we have resources, we have excellent resources, so all of it is just the normal development of the country.

-You know, I was once told a story about the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline, which runs through the Chechen Republic, and as far as I know, the opinion of Heydar Aliyev had a lot of importance at the time. There were big problems with this pipeline. Do you know something about this story, when the representatives of the three countries convened to decide how to transport oil through Ichkeria?

-There were two different issues. The fact is that the pipeline which runs to Novorossiysk was initially meant to have pipelines from Chechnya towards Azerbaijan, which were then to run to Western Siberia, because at that time oil production had begun to decrease in the Chechen Republic as well as in Azerbaijan, but there was a powerful oil-refining industry in the Chechen Republic, there were three major refineries (in one republic!) with a production capacity of 21 million tons, 21 million tons! It was almost a federal center, it supplied almost the entire North Caucasus and even a part of Transcaucasia. There was great oil-refining industry with the same capacity in Baku as well. At the time, the pipeline ran in reverse, the oil was pumped to Azerbaijan, not from it. And when everything stalled, a problem appeared. The problem was due to the fact that... And it occured throughout the country, where hundreds of people tapped into the pipe, stealing oil and made mini refineries with capacities of 5000 tons. An ordinary refinery is 3 million tons and more, then it is profitable. 5000 tons is nothing, you can only do something like that with stolen oil. I think that Heydar Aliyev was very attentive to this issue, he had a reasonable attitude. He knew it was a temporary situation which would change. Once, when I was in Karelia, I saw how a fence was taken from a plant. The same situation was in Siberia. It was its own epoch. People were willing to do anything to survive.

-I heard once about the Second World War that only because of Baku, because of the Grozny oil, was the Red Army able to turn the tide and conquer Berlin. Was there such a significant contribution by the Caucasian oil into the victory of the USSR?

-The Second World War is sometimes called "the war of motors", that's how it is called. And where there are engines, there are many tanks, aircraft, equipment, carriers of arms and people. It was a war of motors. And I must say that 70 percent of these motors operated with the help of Baku and Grozny, the plants of Baku and Grozny. Some oil was provided by the Volga region, and that is why it was known as "the second Baku."  What is taking place today in Tatarstan, in Bashkortostan.

At the time, people simply called it the "second Baku", you should know how it was called. And the majority of engineers were either from Grozny or from Baku, because there were great schools in these cities. See it for yourself: 70% of engines in Russia and the Soviet Union worked on it. Of course, in this regard, their contribution was immense. After all... People somehow do not really understand history, do not study the resettlement of the Chechens. There have never been any Germans on the territory of Chechnya. The Germans were stopped on the borders of Chechnya, at the Elkhot gate, if you remember they were stopped in Ossetia.

-They also came to Malgobek.

-Yes, but at the time Magolbek wasn't part of Chechnya, they were stopped at the border, they were stopped on the Terek, and there were severe battles. The Germans never entered the territory, they were not allowed, because people fought desperately. And when people say that they were collaborators, they are simply lying. There were different reasons, it's a different story about why it happened and why such injustice took place. But in fact, Grozny was bombed, it burned, but it kept manufacturing products for the front, continuously. The plants of Grozny didn't stand idle, not for a single day. It was the largest processing industry.

-Looking at nowadays, do you agree that oil is one of the most important issues of the world geopolitics?

-Oil? Yes, it remains one of the major issues in world politics and, in general, has a serious impact on the global economy. If you remember, politics is a concentrated expression of the economy.

-In its pure form.

-In its pure form, that is why oil has a great impact on the global economy. But on the other hand, I would say that social issues have a strong influence on the world. Now everyone is talking about Islamic State, terrorism, especially ISIS... You are young, you probably don't remember, but in 1970-72 the whole world talked about terrorism in Latin America. There were "red" brigades, terrorist organizations, they put bombs in department stores across America. 

-We were told that it was good: Che Guevara, the fights against the imperialists.

-What was the problem? Of course, not in the fact that they were good or bad. At the time, Latin America woke up to lead an active life. And these countries were the least developed contries and they discovered that there was no place for them, everything had already been distributed and they had to fight for their own place. They got it, and the world gave in, the world taught them how to live, helped them with their economies, invested money there and gradually stabilized Latin America. Today, Islamic countries have woken up to lead an active life. I assure you, there are only 5-6 rich countries there and all the other Islamic countries are poor. They are asking for their own place in this world. Recently, Obama said that one of the main reasons why so many Europeans join ISIS, fight ISIS is because there is a socio-economic and political insecurity and that it is necessary to think about it. The West has already begun to realize something. We have always understood this, we treat this problem seriously, but I am talking about... When this is over, I assure you, there will be "black" terrorism. Africa, too, will wake up and it will remind us of slavery, it will remind a lot of things to the white man. They will demand their own place in the world, and we will have to develop a normal economy there, help them to think through, to solve their economic and political issues. All this would not occur out of nowhere. There are large-scale social changes. Economics and social changes are the ones which rule the world. People can make it better or worse. I believe that our country is very intensively improving the situation, it understands its direction, I think. And when we are moving in the right direction, the world is better off.

- Salambek Naibovich, you are often asked to make a prediction, by journalists about world oil prices, and we also invite you to think a little about this problem.

-No one can give an exact forecast, but I think it will be in this range: from 50 to 70 barrels per dollar. It is in this range, it will play, go back and forth. The Americans will not allow it to fall below 50 dollars, their shale oil is burning. Those Americans who are fighting for shale oil above 70 dollars, that means those who will not allow shale oil. And above 70, those who are fighting for the slate. There are two groups of American. Oil is done by, I tell you, two groups of Americans. Those who are for shale oil, they want higher, those who are against shale, Americans that work for in the world, they want lower. That's their war. I think 50-70.

-Well, the most important of your thoughts for me was the fact that there is no conspiracy against Russia. Oil conspiracy.

-It simply cannot be done. The plot is ... Well, there will be some attempts, contracts, but it's impossible. The world is so diverse now, it's impossible. And the interests are too different. There are powerful economic interest groups. It’s not always even states. I say to you, that the groups that are associated with oil production in the Middle East are American companies, European companies, and some local companies. There are groups that are associated with shale oil in America, there are also American, European, and other companies. These groups are not tied to a particular country. They are in the world today, fighting for oil. The price of oil, and for everything else.

-Do they have their politicians in power?

-Well of course they have their own politicians in power, they have their own understanding of power, and they have their influence on the natural power of the government. It's true. Well, politics has always depended on the economy and vice versa.

-I want to ask you, yet again, to return to the recent past. To the time when you were offered and you accepted the offer to become chairman of the government of national revival of Chechnya. This structure was short-lived. And the reason for this?

-The thing is. The fact is, that it was somewhere in November 94, semi-military operations had begun, and there was a question, that there was actually an economic collapse in the country.

-Why did you not accept his offer?

-There was another reason. The fact that I told him, you know, I still carry out a particular economic activity. And that is what I understand, to learn, so he was a pilot, to learn how to keep a plane, well, at least 15 years is necessary. Well, 15 years before this conversation. With the economy as well, it is necessary to delve into it. If there is a confrontation with Russia, an economy cannot be created. We do not have the market, we have nowhere to supply our oil. We have no place, no place to earn money. We cannot sit and eat potatoes. It is necessary to live somehow. Then, if he puts questions about economic relations with Russia, outside, and does not stop me, I'll take it. Let him work, bring his Interior Ministry, so there would be order. The FSB, the KGB. Well, in general, deal with law enforcement agencies, put things in order. And still, he said that he could not give me the economy. And I say that with such relations with Russia, I cannot solve the economy. And you yourself cannot. Then I told him, to tell you the truth, I said, you know what, now I ask you, there are 5-6 people in Chechen republic, named him someone, and said, these men - do not touch them. That's when you screw up, they will pull this republic. Do not touch them. I still will not participate. I'm a scientist, I like to work there. And so it was. But these people do not touch. And he really did not touch them. Because it was clear that he would ruin the republic. So, when I was invited by Chernomyrdin, I said, okay, I'll take the economy. I was engaged only in the economy, I did not interfere in the affairs of all the others, and did not want to get involved, well then I just came and said that, here are government-appointed ministers, and they all obeyed. There was really no order, there was nothing. I said this, I did this, and all obeyed. And we worked in a year, just when it seemed that everything more or less stabilized already, I gathered the old Supreme Council, I said, I'm going to Moscow. I was offered the chairman of the State Committee for Industrial Policy position, what I understood, I left as the chairman. And Zavgaev was chosen after me, so he continued. He continued. And, of course, if the policy was built up right that time, I'd been building it one to one, as in 2000, then all of this, in '96, when there were troops, all of this would never have happened. Then everything would be over, there would have been far fewer fatalities, significantly less damage. Well, the environment, part of Yeltsin's entourage, set policy very differently.

-The War Party?

-It’s just different there. But those who fought there, they had already felt victory, and they said, and now we, and even said out loud to me, and now we're finish with Chechnya, and will clean up the Kremlin. The Kremlin did not really want to be cleaned up, and it started, it was more Moscow's decision, and not ours. The decision was that in '96, the forces would go here. So that these guys, who want to clean up afterwards, won’t go out. Certainly, no order would be made, but such sentiments were created. And Yeltsin was ahead in elections. In the '96 elections. And all of this was combined, and the republic was practically given up. All the guys, that, in general, together with the troops there, were fighting for the republic. Including some of Kadyrov's guys. They were just given up. Russia handed them over. Together with the generals. They handed them over too. Shamed them all, if you remember. Accused them of having handed over Grozny. It was the policy of Moscow.

-A gang fight, huh?

-Yes, a gang fight. Well, that's all covered the main reason, for what all of it was done. It all covered up the robbery of the country. Then ...

-You mean the Chechen War?

-Of course, in the first place. Because then, everyone spoke about Chechnya, but at the same time, the country was robbed. Well, was pilfered actually. And everyone was talking about Chechnya. About the Chechens those who died there, but in fact, it was a thoughtful robbery. And the second thing, that was going on there, was a struggle between the two groups. How did you say, the War Party, well, it was not the War Party, and, you know, if you remember how we in '90-'91 disgraced the army, said that in Tbilisi, all of that, it was shamed on purpose, to deprive... Of course, the army in general, tried, in Chechnya, well, to restore its name. And to some extent in the initial stages, they succeeded. The names of Gaymial, Rokhlin, Babichev, they're rattled, if you remember. All over the country. Rokhlin had an enormous authority in the country at that time. It certainly scared the Kremlin. Part of the Kremlin - much, and they just handed them over. This is a very difficult conclusion. But the main thing was, I think in all of this, and there ... so to speak, not autonomy, not independence, the main purpose was to defend the robbery of the country. And it worked. When hundreds of billions of dollars were taken, but everyone was talking about Chechnya.

-And with the price of so many lives. Both Chechens and Russian people, and not only Russian.

-Well, nevertheless, no one said there, guys, stop, take a look. The country is taken. The country is taken at this time. And the finger is pointing the other way.

-Had the oil factor played some role, negatively, in the Chechen war?

-No, Chechnya extracted 4 million tons of oil, a small, insignificant amount. Previously, the Chechen republic produed 20-21 million, it was ... but it was the 70s. And by that time a lot of things had fallen. 4 million tons, now they get a million and a half, our oil, I mean. But then it was 4 million tons, which was a small proportion to the extent of Russia. It's a lot of money for some small region, but for Russia it was a small fraction. The robbery of Russian played the main role. Of Greater Russia.

-Salambek Naibovich, you know so much about that time, did you not have the desire to write a book about these serious events?

-Well I'm writing, but writing scientific articles. I'm not a journalist, so I did not have the desire. Scientific articles on chemistry and petrochemistry, I have the desire, I write them.

-We have a good opportunity to hear your testimony about those traumatic events. If today you travel back to Chechnya, are you happy with the current situation? The state of the petrocomplex, the economy, in general.

-I am now happy that the country is back on its feet. I am glad that it is cleaned up, pleased with Ramzan Akhmatovich's management. I think he is an extremely talented man, and a very good decision for our country and he does a lot. What saddens me: Well, firstly, the oil complex. Already so many years they have promised to build an oil refinery there.

-The destroyed one, that oil refinery?

-Yes. There were three of them. They do not have it. There's just a bare area. They were taken for scrap. And, as things are there, and in general, the project was launched, then stopped, due to the fall in oil prices, and it can be quite bad. Well, in general it is a problem. The oil complex has not been restored, and that is jobs. And in the oil complex, worked with us, well, at least up to a hundred thousand people. And these jobs are not there. Now when they wanted a small plant, and there could be three, four, five thousand people to organize, they wanted a small plant, 1 million tons, instead of 27 million to organize, and there no one builds it. And of course, the second problem in the country, and it won't solve itself, it needs serious help, it's jobs. There are not enough jobs in the country. And again, the government of Ramzan Akhmatovich does a lot for jobs, but they need help, because virtually all, you know, it's a recovery from a very difficult war. Here, from '94, '95, 2003-2004, it went on. Grozny, actually was completely destroyed. I'm not talking about the villages. Therefore, there is not so much care about money, everyone talks about money, that money is going out to the North Plant, spend more money than the whole republic, or for the entire North Caucasus, but the problem is not money. The problem is how to learn to aggregate, to assimilate the entire system of the economy. How to build an economy to match those people who are there. Their specializations, their mentality. Creating a new economy is the problem. This is what we have to learn, but I think we will learn. Sooner or later. Our people are enterprising in the North Caucasus, very much. So we will learn sooner or later.

-Your forecast is optimistic?

-Of course. All nations will sooner or later find their economic way. Starting to untwist themselves, so to speak. All nations.