What did Lausanne change for Azerbaijan?

By Vestnik Kavkaza

For a few days politicians and economists of the world are discussing the Lausanne agreements on lifting Western sanctions against Iran. The issue is topical for Iran’s neighbor – Azerbaijan. The potential for economic cooperation between Baku and Tehran is much greater than the level of their cooperation has been in recent years. Experts say that one of the main directions of partnership will be the Southern Gas Corridor, which has been initiated by Azerbaijan and its partners as part of exploitation of the gas field Shah-Deniz. The Iranian national company NICO is among the partners in the project. As Western sanctions were operating, the participation of Iran in pipeline projects on transferring gas to Europe was ruled out. But today the situation is changing. Analysts are discussing the possibility of purchasing a share of TANAP by Tehran and exporting gas through the route in the future.

Ilham Shaban, the head of the Center for Oil Studies, told Vestnik Kavkaza that “Iran is a neighbor of Azerbaijan, and there is a long border between Azerbaijan and Iran. When the situation on the border is unstable, it is very important for the country. Launching sanctions created additional tensions. Lifting sanctions will improve trade between Azerbaijan and Iran. In 2010 trade turnover between the countries was about $600 million, while in 2014 it was only $220 million. That’s how sanctions influenced the situation.”

Rasim Musabekov, a political scientist, an MP of Azerbaijani Mejlis, told Vestnik Kavkaza that nothing had changed after reaching the agreements in Lausanne: “The political outlines of the possible agreements have been defined, but there are many technical details without which there will be no agreement. They have time till June 30th only. Nothing will change till that time, as the sanctions stay in force; so there are no changes in the sphere. But if the atmosphere of expecting a strike at Iran disappears, it will be favorable for peace and for the countries which are neighboring Iran and support good relations with it, including Azerbaijan.

If anti-Iranian sanctions are lifted, there are several projects that can be implemented between Iran and Azerbaijan. Trade turnover and economic contacts with Iran will develop in a better way. The project of construction of the North-South Railway will be fulfilled intensively.”

Musabekov doesn’t rule out that “Iranian gas can be exported to the European market, using TANAP, the joint pipeline project of Azerbaijan and Turkey. So, there are prospects for improvement in the trade and economic sphere.”

At the same time the expert stresses that if Iran, where Shiah Islam dominates strives to increase its influence in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, “Azerbaijan is able to neutralize such attempts, using its internal forces and support of close friends and allies.”

Fikret Sadykhov, Professor of the Western University, a political scientist, thinks Lausanne agreements are beneficial for Baku: “Azerbaijan was accused of becoming a platform for launching attacks, a military action against Iran, creating airfields and military infrastructure on its territory to fulfill some attacking steps against Iran. I think Azerbaijan has always viewed negatively a military resolution of the Iranian problem. We have many times stated this, understanding that it could lead to a humanitarian disaster and environmental problems. More than 30 million of our compatriots live in Iran. An inflow of refugees could come to Azerbaijan. Anyway, elimination of anti-Iranian sanctions will provide improvement of stability in the region.”