EEU lifts up Kyrgyzstan

Victoria Panfilova, an observer of Nezavisimaya Gazeta. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza

 
Kyrgyzstan has become the fifth member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). The presidents of the integration association of Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia adopted a decision on Kyrgyzstan’s accession to the union at a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council on May 8. President Almazbek Atambayev assured the allies that Bishkek is ready for the integration, all the documents have been adopted. However, the experts believe that it is too early to consider Kyrgyzstan to be a full member of the EEU – it has to solve a number of issues, in particular border protection and veterinary control.

Kyrgyzstan began preparing to join the EEU a long time ago. Bishkek adopted a roadmap for Eurasian integration in May 2014. Kyrgyzstan pledged to make changes to more than 90 legal acts regulating customs, tax, trade and other economic policies. For these purposes $200 million and $100 million were allocated from the budget of Russia and Kazakhstan respectively. Russia has promised Kyrgyzstan to transfer another $1 billion to a joint investment fund. Similar negotiations are under way with Astana about establishing a fund. However, Kazakhstan in the years of its independence has invested more than one and a half billion dollars in the neighboring republic. The main investments were directed toward the banking sector on the development of the tourism sector near Lake Issyk-Kul.  The agriculture, water and energy sectors, and the mining industry do not remain without funds. Kazakhstan's attitude to Kyrgyzstan is dictated by specific interests. The common border makes Kazakhstan vulnerable. Therefore, Astana has made every effort to tighten Kyrgyzstan into the integration association.

However, as an expert on Central Asia and the Middle East, Alexander Knyazev, told Vestnik Kavkaza, no one should think that the process of Kyrgyzstan's integration into the EEU will be smooth – "The pro-American lobby among top officials, who had the goal of disrupting the accession of Kyrgyzstan to the EEU, is strong in the country." Despite the unavailability of certain documents, Moscow has decided to no longer postpone the accession of Kyrgyzstan into the integration association.

"Kyrgyzstan joining the EEU, as well as Armenia, is a political project of the EEU lobbied by the Russian leadership," Knyazev said. According to the expert, Russia is ready to pay for some geopolitical sense. There is a Russian military base in Kyrgyzstan, there is interest in a number of industrial facilities and there is a desire to involve other former Soviet countries – Tajikistan, Uzbekistan – into the integration processes.

Some experts point out that the joining of Kyrgyzstan, which is a weak link in Central Asia, with the EEU is fraught with political and economic risks. The Director of the Analytical Center of the Institute of International Studies, Andrey Kazantsev, named a few of them: the first and most important risk is the re-export of Chinese goods, because a significant role in the economy of Kyrgyzstan is played by transit, often poorly regulated, illegal. This flow of Chinese goods then goes to Russia and Kazakhstan. The removal of trade barriers could increase the illegal transit, taking into account that the barriers are transparent. Efforts have been made within the framework of the accession to the EEU, in particular, in the protection of the border. Trading in the major markets, such as Dordoi, decreased. But we cannot say that this dubious specialty of the Kyrgyz economy is "eliminated", because there is nothing to replace it.

The second risk is also fairly obvious – drugs. The cancellation of customs borders initially between Russia and Kazakhstan, and now between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, means that there are no barriers in the northern route of transportation of drugs from Afghanistan to Russia. "This is a huge risk, taking into account the fact that Russia ranks first in the consumption of Afghan heroin," Kazantsev said.

The next problematic issue is related to the integration of migrant workers. Kyrgyzstan's main interest in joining the EAEC, in addition to receiving economic aid, is to increase the flow of labor migration into Russia, and the stabilization of the legal status of migrants. Kyrgyz are now equated to Russian migrants. For example, a man who arrives in Moscow from Kyrgyzstan has the same status as a man arriving in Moscow from Vladimir. This is important for Kyrgyzstan, as the Kyrgyz Republic ranked third in the world in the proportion of remission of migrant workers in the country's GDP. And chances are that this percentage will be even higher, which carries risks for Russia and Kazakhstan, related to the adaptation of migrants.

But the main risk, according to Kazantsev, is associated with the high political instability in Kyrgyzstan. Many international rankings, which assess the effect of statehood or, alternatively, the potential of failed states, consider Kyrgyzstan as one of the candidates for this unenviable role in the former Soviet Union. And given the fact that the political situation in the country is unstable, the risk of a default on any obligations is very high. The position of the government of Kyrgyzstan is always rather shaky, another revolutionary situation is possible, therefore there is a risk of failure of the plans.

As for the advantages of the Kyrgyz Republic, according to Kazantsev, it is, first and foremost, Russian economic aid, which comes through many channels. Although, according to formal statistical measurements, Russia does not occupy first place in helping Kyrgyzstan, as international organizations fixed, in fact, a consequence of the fact that it did not really take into account the amounts of aid. And there are supplies of weapons and military training and subsidized fuel and the reception of migrants, and Gazprom's purchase of the notoriously unprofitable gas transportation sector of Kyrgyzstan, etc. Russian participation plays an important role in the economy of Kyrgyzstan and it is incomparable with anything else. In addition, Russia is the sole guarantor of the security of Kyrgyzstan. However, this is a topic of another alliance – the CSTO, not the EEU.