Turkmenistan's energy ambitions conflict with interests of Qatar

 

Victoria Panfilova, an observer of Nezavisimaya Gazeta. Exclusively for Vestnik KavkazaTurkmenistan is preparing to enter the markets of Pakistan, India and Southeast Asia, the President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov said at the opening of the 6th International Turkmenistan Gas Congress. He expressed confidence that specific approaches "will be stated at the event and constructive proposals for the implementation of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline would be put forward." However, the optimistic plans are not so easy to implement - they can be interfered with by military operations in northern Afghanistan.About 400 delegates from more than 30 countries participated the International Gas Congress. Among them were leaders and representatives of the Hyundai Engineering Corp. Ltd, LG International Corp, Dragon Oil, ENI, CNPC International, PETRONAS Carigali (Turkmenistan) Sdn Bhd, Buried Hill, Shell, Huawei Tech Invest Co. Ltd., Pietro Fiorentini SpA and Sumitomo Corporation Europe. Many of them are going to participate in the tender to lead the consortium of the TAPI project. As Vestnik Kavkaza reported, all the preliminary work on the TAPI project has been completed – the contracts on the sale of Turkmen natural gas have been signed, a consortium of the TAPI Ltd is established and registered, and to elect a consortium of leading companies is the only thing left to do. It was planned that the tender will be held on February 15, 2015 in New Delhi. But at the last moment it was decided to postpone the competition to the end of May. The participants are expecting that the Ministry of Oil and Gas Industry of Turkmenistan will announce a new date during the Gas Congress. A number of preferences, which guarantee covering of expenses, will be granted to the company which will lead the consortium, and most importantly – it will get a long-term contract on the production and transportation of gas for 20 years or more."Turkmenistan is one of the world leaders in oil, gas reserves and other mineral resources. The use of these natural resources to enhance the welfare level of the people is a priority direction of the state policy. Following the aim to turn our the country into a developed industrial power, we intend to create a modern infrastructure for the processing of hydrocarbon raw materials," Berdimuhamedov said. According to him, "tremendous transformations are being made in the domestic oil and gas industry in the era of power." But the main message of the Turkmen leader came down to the traditional desire in recent years to diversify gas export routes. Berdimuhamedov stressed that "Turkmenistan is working hard to diversify the routes of natural gas to the world markets, defining it as one of the key priorities of the implemented energy strategy." In particular, the country is exporting natural gas to China, Iran and Russia. Among the planned gas pipelines there are the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline across the Caspian Sea through Azerbaijan to Europe, and the Trans-Afghan gas pipeline from Pakistan to India.It is more or less clear on the European direction. A permanent working group of representatives of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, the EU and Turkey has been established, which will study the issues of transportation of Turkmen gas to Europe. There is a proposal by the EU to create a consortium of leading European companies, which would not only directly supervise the construction of a gas pipeline, but would take the responsibility of the project investment.There are more questions than answers on the TAPI project. The main question is the future security of the pipeline, whose length is about 1800 km, the throughput is 33 billion cubic meters of gas per year for 30 years and is worth almost $12 billion. The USA promised to provide security for the project. This is understandable – they are lobbying for TAPI. But saying doesn't mean doing. Uncontrollable Taliban forces, which consist of local Afghan Turkmens, have intensified in northern Afghanistan at the Turkmen border area. According to an expert on Central Asia and the Middle East, Alexander Knyazev, recently the Afghan-Turkmen border has been controlled by Taliban troops. They are scattered, the expert said, they do not have a unified command and they are under the influence of third countries – Turkey and Qatar. Almost all the territories which can take the TAPI gas pipeline – the north-western provinces of Afghanistan – Faryab, Badghis, Saripul and partly Herat – are under the control of the Turkmen Taliban. Recently the Taliban blew up a power line in Faryab, which provided electricity from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan. As a result, Afghan media reports, in the course of a night battle near Daulatabad, one of the rockets hit an electricity pylon and electricity supplies to villages in Afghanistan were interrupted. The residents of the provincial capital of Faryab – the city of Maymana, and the district centers of Daulatabad, Shirin, Tagab and other settlements were left without light. According to Knyazev, the activation of Turkmen Taliban groups is a serious obstacle for the construction of the TAPI.Not only the anarchic militias in the Afghan-Turkmen border area, but also quite formal serious players play against TAPI. In particular, it is difficult to imagine that Qatar, which holds a monopoly in the gas supply of Pakistan and which is the largest supplier of gas to India and South-East Asia, will be satisfied with the construction and the launch of the TAPI. Any exports of cheap Turkmen gas to the same markets will seriously affect the interests of this country. The TAPI could not fit in with the interests of Turkey, which has long been eyeing Caspian gas. Ankara has ambitious plans to become a grand gas hub. The list of TAPI "enemies" theoretically also could include China, which is not averse to getting all the Turkmen gas at its disposal and to dispose of it at its sole discretion in the future. Besides, the construction of the TAPI will strengthen the influence of the US in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the Celestial Empire is traditionally against strengthening the position of non-regional players.

Victoria Panfilova, an observer of Nezavisimaya Gazeta. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza

 
Turkmenistan is preparing to enter the markets of Pakistan, India and Southeast Asia, the President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov said at the opening of the 6th International Turkmenistan Gas Congress. He expressed confidence that specific approaches "will be stated at the event and constructive proposals for the implementation of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline would be put forward." However, the optimistic plans are not so easy to implement - they can be interfered with by military operations in northern Afghanistan.

 
About 400 delegates from more than 30 countries participated the International Gas Congress. Among them were leaders and representatives of the Hyundai Engineering Corp. Ltd, LG International Corp, Dragon Oil, ENI, CNPC International, PETRONAS Carigali (Turkmenistan) Sdn Bhd, Buried Hill, Shell, Huawei Tech Invest Co. Ltd., Pietro Fiorentini SpA and Sumitomo Corporation Europe. Many of them are going to participate in the tender to lead the consortium of the TAPI project. As Vestnik Kavkaza reported, all the preliminary work on the TAPI project has been completed – the contracts on the sale of Turkmen natural gas have been signed, a consortium of the TAPI Ltd is established and registered, and to elect a consortium of leading companies is the only thing left to do. It was planned that the tender will be held on February 15, 2015 in New Delhi. But at the last moment it was decided to postpone the competition to the end of May. The participants are expecting that the Ministry of Oil and Gas Industry of Turkmenistan will announce a new date during the Gas Congress. A number of preferences, which guarantee covering of expenses, will be granted to the company which will lead the consortium, and most importantly – it will get a long-term contract on the production and transportation of gas for 20 years or more.

"Turkmenistan is one of the world leaders in oil, gas reserves and other mineral resources. The use of these natural resources to enhance the welfare level of the people is a priority direction of the state policy. Following the aim to turn our the country into a developed industrial power, we intend to create a modern infrastructure for the processing of hydrocarbon raw materials," Berdimuhamedov said. According to him, "tremendous transformations are being made in the domestic oil and gas industry in the era of power." But the main message of the Turkmen leader came down to the traditional desire in recent years to diversify gas export routes. Berdimuhamedov stressed that "Turkmenistan is working hard to diversify the routes of natural gas to the world markets, defining it as one of the key priorities of the implemented energy strategy." In particular, the country is exporting natural gas to China, Iran and Russia. Among the planned gas pipelines there are the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline across the Caspian Sea through Azerbaijan to Europe, and the Trans-Afghan gas pipeline from Pakistan to India.

It is more or less clear on the European direction. A permanent working group of representatives of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, the EU and Turkey has been established, which will study the issues of transportation of Turkmen gas to Europe. There is a proposal by the EU to create a consortium of leading European companies, which would not only directly supervise the construction of a gas pipeline, but would take the responsibility of the project investment.

There are more questions than answers on the TAPI project. The main question is the future security of the pipeline, whose length is about 1800 km, the throughput is 33 billion cubic meters of gas per year for 30 years and is worth almost $12 billion. The USA promised to provide security for the project. This is understandable – they are lobbying for TAPI. But saying doesn't mean doing. Uncontrollable Taliban forces, which consist of local Afghan Turkmens, have intensified in northern Afghanistan at the Turkmen border area. According to an expert on Central Asia and the Middle East, Alexander Knyazev, recently the Afghan-Turkmen border has been controlled by Taliban troops. They are scattered, the expert said, they do not have a unified command and they are under the influence of third countries – Turkey and Qatar. Almost all the territories which can take the TAPI gas pipeline – the north-western provinces of Afghanistan – Faryab, Badghis, Saripul and partly Herat – are under the control of the Turkmen Taliban. Recently the Taliban blew up a power line in Faryab, which provided electricity from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan. As a result, Afghan media reports, in the course of a night battle near Daulatabad, one of the rockets hit an electricity pylon and electricity supplies to villages in Afghanistan were interrupted. The residents of the provincial capital of Faryab – the city of Maymana, and the district centers of Daulatabad, Shirin, Tagab and other settlements were left without light. According to Knyazev, the activation of Turkmen Taliban groups is a serious obstacle for the construction of the TAPI.

Not only the anarchic militias in the Afghan-Turkmen border area, but also quite formal serious players play against TAPI. In particular, it is difficult to imagine that Qatar, which holds a monopoly in the gas supply of Pakistan and which is the largest supplier of gas to India and South-East Asia, will be satisfied with the construction and the launch of the TAPI. Any exports of cheap Turkmen gas to the same markets will seriously affect the interests of this country. The TAPI could not fit in with the interests of Turkey, which has long been eyeing Caspian gas. Ankara has ambitious plans to become a grand gas hub. The list of TAPI "enemies" theoretically also could include China, which is not averse to getting all the Turkmen gas at its disposal and to dispose of it at its sole discretion in the future. Besides, the construction of the TAPI will strengthen the influence of the US in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the Celestial Empire is traditionally against strengthening the position of non-regional players.