Results of the parliamentary elections in Turkey

Orkhan Sattarov, head of the European Office of Vestnik Kavkaza

The parliamentary elections in Turkey are over. And their main sensation was that the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HTP) headed by Selahattin Demirtaş got into parliament. It gained 12.9% of the votes, i.e. overcame the 10-percent barrier for members of parliament, which was initiated in 1982 by putschists. A lawyer from Diyarbekir, the unofficial Kurdish capital in Turkey, managed to attract not only the majority of the Kurds living in the country and representatives of other ethnic minorities, but also left-wing Turkish groups. Europe is satisfied with the results of the elections; and today the leading media, as well as the OSCE, is giving a high assessment of ‘the democratic character’ of the voting.

There is a simple explanation for the Europeans’ joy, especially Germany’s. Of course, it is not connected to devotedness to democratic ideals. Another thing is much more important: President Erdogan has been dealt a serious blow; and now he won’t turn Turkey into a presidential republic in the near future. Moreover, the fact that the directly separatist HDP has entered parliament potentially threatens Turkish statehood; while a weakened and controllable Turkey is a more comfortable partner for the EU countries. The radical turn of Germany on the Armenian issue, which we could see this April, is also part of the strategy to suppress their ally in NATO.

Therefore, the Justice and Democracy Party (AKP) faces the need to form a coalition for the first time in the 13 years of its rule, gaining 41% of the votes. In comparison with the results of the parliamentary elections of 2011, today the popularity of the JDP has fallen by 9%. The last four years were very difficult for Erdogan. He went through corruption scandals and an internal political struggle against Gul’s supporters, the protests in Gezi, heavy criticism by European and American media, as well as failures in foreign policy in the Middle East, including Syria. All these events negatively influenced the rating of Erdogan and his party, which is still the most powerful political force in Turkey.

Today, when the AKP has to seek partners to form a coalition, none of the three other parties which have got into parliament show a readiness to work with the Islamist ruling party. What are the options in general?

A coalition between the AKP and the Kurdish HDP is unlikely for various reasons. First of all, Premier Ahmed Davutoglu stated during the election campaign that every vote given to HDP was equal to a vote given to the terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party. After such broad statements, the AKP will unlikely take a risk in forming a coalition government with the HDP. Secondly, the HDP supports recognition of “the Armenian genocide” and the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border. This discredits the party for the majority of the Turkish population. Finally, the pro-Kurdish party, represented by Demirtaş, itself ruled out the possibility of a coalition with Erdogan’s party.

The leader of the People’s Republican Party (PRP) which gained second place (25%), Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, also ruled out the possibility of forming a coalition with the AKP. The ruling party could probably form a coalition with the Nationalists, who gained 16% of the vote. This scenario is thought to be the most probable today. At the same time, the leader of the Party of the Nationalist Movement, Devlet Bahçeli, doesn’t hide his joy about the AKP's failure; right after the elections he stated about ‘the beginning of the end’ of the ruling party.

The AKP could also try to form a minority government, but analysts state that such a government will be dependent on other parties and can’t work stably. Finally, the ruling party can try to attract MPs from other parties to its side to reach the majority. But that would require at least 15 MPs – this is a difficult task.

The turbulence that has appeared in Turkish politics led to a fall in the stock market of 8% on June 8th. The exchange rate of the lira against the dollar fell by 5% as well. Financial experts explain the reaction was due to the uncertainty of investors about the current unstable political situation.

In 45 days the Justice and Development Party must find a coalition partner, otherwise the country will hold new elections. A long crisis of power obviously contradicts the interests of the Turkish state, its financial, economic, and political stability. The formation of a coalition seems to be the most promising scenario. However, there is a view that in new elections the AKP can gain more favorable results if it reduces the 10-percent barrier to get into the parliament. Such a step could cut off the electorate of smaller parties from HDP, as people voted not for Demirtaş, but against Erdogan.