Experts comment on default prospects of Greece

Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said that the country will not pay 1.6 billion euros of debt to the IMF, which means a default for the country. Vladimir Olenchenko, senior fellow of the MGIMO Center for European Studies, noted that the issue should be considered through the prism of statements of top leaders. IMF Chief Christine Lagarde, he reminds, sees no point in the Greek referendum because the terms of payments expire today, while German Chancellor Angela Merkel is still open to discussions after the referendum, and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras denied raising the issue of a euro exit.

Concerning the default's impact on Russian-Greek relations, the expert doubts that there will be any repercussions for the Russian economy. Russia should be prepared to make use of the rapid privatization process that may follow the default.

Dmitry Piskulov, chairman of the board of the National Currency Organization, said that adoption of a national currency in Greece would be a big psychological and reputational blow to the euro. Greece, he believes, will start restructuring the debt the way Turkey, Ecuador, Argentina and Russia did after the default of 1998.

Piskulov anticipates that quitting the EU would close access to donations, subventions and other EU subsidies. Some liquidity will remain in European markets, having little impact on the EU. On the other hand, the expert adds, Greece will face many problems, while suffering from devaluation of the national currency and inflation. The eurozone will get rid of a country tarnishing its overall financial indicators.