What should we do with Ukraine?

President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko on the occasion of the Independence Day of his country visited the German capital. In Berlin the Ukrainian leader met with his major European allies – German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande. The meeting was held in a shortened format of the so-called "Normandy Quartet", because Russian President Vladimir Putin was not invited to it. Through the words of the spokesman for the Chancellor, Stefan Seibert, the German government was quick to assure that there are no talks about a change of format and Germany is interested in maintaining a close dialogue with Moscow.

Meanwhile, the German media covered Poroshenko's visit to Berlin rather sparingly. Refugees from the Middle East, demonstrations by neo-Nazis in the country, the collapse of stock markets, the Greek crisis – all these topics occupy journalists far more than the actual problems of Kiev, in spite of the extremely turbulent situation and constant new victims in eastern Ukraine.

We can see a steady decline in public interest in Ukrainian themes in Germany. "It seems that there is a change of prospects in the perception of the Ukrainian conflict. It often seems that the ultimate goal of the European policy was to find such a solution in Ukraine that would be acceptable to Russia. But that would be fatal," Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung publication journalist Peter Sturm complains. The publication Süddeutsche Zeitung notes that the Ukrainian government, "which hysterically warned" about the threat of direct military aggression of Russia right on the day of independence of Ukraine in 2014, and this year stated about upcoming acts of sabotage against the country, demonstrates what kind of difficult situation it is in by this. Meanwhile, the publication writes, the celebration of the Independence Day of Ukraine was held peacefully once again

A famous German expert on post-Soviet space, Stefan Meister, from acting under the German Foreign Ministry brain center DGAP in an interview with World Economy speaks about the "sobering" of Europe in the Ukrainian conflict. "We faced the problem of excessive expectations. We expect that Ukraine will carry out reforms, that in a short time a lot of things will be invested there, and the country will be developed in the right direction," the political scientist noted. At the same time, according to Meister, not so much was invested in the country. "Ukraine is a long-term project that must be constantly supported financially, with human resources, with investments. It is true that in the short term there is great disappointment. There were hopes that new forces will come, that oligarchs will no longer play such an important role in the state, and these hopes have not come true. At the same time there is still an unresolved conflict with Russia, which complicates the economic ties with it. I would say that in Germany, as in many other EU countries, a deep sobering has happened. Initial expectations were not fulfilled, but that did not happen because they were unrealistic," the expert stressed. Stefan Meister fears that this disappointment will lead to a decrease of the involvement of the EU in Ukraine, although, as he notes, its stabilization is only possible through long-term work.

Meanwhile, as reported by Handelsblatt, citing the Eastern Committee of the German economy, this year a powerful collapse in German exports to Russia is expected. According to preliminary estimates, the volume of exports will drop by 9 billion euros, which is almost a quarter less than in 2014.

But if the trade relations between Germany and Russia were severely affected by the Ukrainian crisis, then on the arms market German companies expect new orders from the European countries that have decided to strengthen their arsenal against the background of confrontation with Russia. The confrontation between the West and the Russian Federation has put on the edge the issue of combat capability and the increasing cost of maintenance and modernization of European armies. In particular, Poland is currently deliberating the modernization of 130 German 'Leopard' tanks, which are in the service of the Polish Army. Lithuania, in turn, plans to buy German-made self-propelled howitzers. It is expected that Ukraine will become one of the importers of German arms. However, these orders can hardly cover the losses incurred by the Germans because of common European problems in relations with Russia.