Is Russia returning to a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan at the meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the latter's out-of-town residence in Novo-Ogaryovo thanked the Russian leader for his efforts in finding ways of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. "I would like to thank Russia and you for your efforts in finding a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. There has been a very hard situation on the border during the last two weeks,’’ Sargsyan said, complaining that ‘‘the Azerbaijani side used artillery in addition to large-caliber firearms. Of course, we have to respond. I will speak about it in detail at the CSTO summit in Dushanbe," he added.

Sargsyan also thanked the Russian President for the transfer to the Armenian Justice Ministry of the case against Russian serviceman Valery Permjakova, suspected of the murder of a family in Gyumri. The Armenian President also discussed other topics. He hopes it will be possible to find a new solution to the problems related to energy prices in Armenia despite the fluctuation of currency exchange rates.

"The key question remains the price of energy. In this crisis situation, currency fluctuations have a very painful effect on the rates. I hope that we will find a new good solution,’’ Sargsyan said at the meeting with Vladimir Putin.

The Deputy Head of the Information Analytical Center of Moscow State University, an expert of Vestnik Kavkaza Andrey Petrov, expressed confidence that the presidents discussed the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict behind closed doors. 

"Even if it wasn't noted in official statements, Putin and Sargsyan couldn't but help discussing the topic of Nagorno-Karabakh as an essential part of their negotiations. In particular, it is important for Serzh Sargsyan to find out the current plans of the Kremlin, including the recent visit of Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Baku, as well trying to persuade him to postpone possible progress in resolving the conflict, because any possible concessions, as well as the de-occupation of the districts, could undermine the position of Sargsyan in power. The Karabakh topic will be immediately used by the opposition and Robert Kocharyan. It is not advantageous for the current President, especially now that he is trying to stay in power through constitutional reform and the transition of leverages from President to Prime Minister. The level of support among the population is extremely low and he cannot take a gamble on such a sharp political decision with his rejection of the status quo in Karabakh,’’ Petrov said.

According to him, Vladimir Putin had more important causes to discuss the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. "In my opinion, Russia is returning to the role of an active mediator in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group, and as well in the ‘personal’ form of work with higher state officials of the leadership of Armenia and Azerbaijan. 

Last year this format was interrupted by the crisis created from the sharp drop in oil prices: Russia was forced to deal with its own problems and review economic relations with the West, turning them to the East, learn to live in an unfavorable economic situation for raw markets. Recently, Vladimir Putin, speaking at the East Economic Forum, said that Russia has adapted to the new conditions. We can come to the conclusion that the Kremlin has decided to return to unfinished foreign policy issues, and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is one of the main issues for Russia,’’ the expert concluded.