Will Azerbaijan join EEU after return of Nagorno-Karabakh?

Azerbaijan is not dismissing the possibility of joining the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), but only when Armenia will withdraw its troops from Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov said.

"The presence on the occupied territories by Armenia does not allow us to co-exist in the same alliance. If Armenia withdraws its troops, if the borders are opened, if there is a normalization of the situation, if there will be an economic component between Armenia and Azerbaijan, who knows what will happen tomorrow. Never say never," Interfax-Azerbaijan cited him as saying.

Mammadyarov said that Baku carries out its foreign policy based solely on national interests. Accordingly, it is taking steps to promote the strengthening of its independence and sovereignty, as well as the economic, political and humanitarian development of the country.

Professor of the Western University, political scientist Fikret Sadykhov, told Vestnik Kavkaza that "Azerbaijan is in a difficult position." "It is clear that we are invited to join various international organizations, including the CSTO, NATO and the EEU. Azerbaijan may take certain steps and accept the invitation or try to enter the EEU. But the efforts of the leading states for the liberation of our own territory are more important to us," he explained.

"Now, in this particular case we are not talking about Nagorno-Karabakh, but about the 7 regions being occupied by Armenia for many years. It is our territory. That is, we, first of all, need certain guarantees to join, to co-exist in the Union, to have economic and trade relations with Armenia, and secondly, it is important to hear that Russia, for example, which is an important strategic partner of Azerbaijan, promises to use efforts to put pressure on Armenia," the expert added.

"I do not think that Azerbaijan is an isolated state, only because it does not come into contact with its neighbors. Armenia should think about it itself, because Azerbaijan does not feel the need for active cooperation with Armenia. This is Armenia which is actually cut off from the world community: the conflict with Azerbaijan and Turkey," Sadykhov said.

"At this stage, I think that the most important obstacle is a real possibility of trade and economic cooperation with Armenia in the framework of the Union. We cannot do it now. All our political priorities are meant to liberate our own territory," the analyst stressed.

He noted that it is not the first time that the representative of Azerbaijan has made such statements. Today's statement by the Foreign Minister may be due to the fact that "perhaps the Moscow authorities are prepared to put some pressure on their military-political ally – Armenia – and gain certain concessions in relation to Azerbaijan."

A scientist of the Institute for Economics of the RAS, Alexander Karavaev, in his turn, noted that accession to the EEU is closely linked to the issue of the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement for the Azerbaijani leadership.

"Public discussion in Azerbaijan on the possible assumptions that could contribute to the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, has been carried out for a long time. The different themes are being discussed periodically, including in the context of rapprochement with Russia in various formats. And the question of joining the Customs Union or the EEU in the context of a settlement also has its history," he explained.

"That is, the link between Azerbaijan's accession to one of the integration blocs led by Russia and some positive movement in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has long been a topic of public discussion. Therefore, the statement by Mammadyarov cannot be regarded as a kind of extraordinary event that suggests a possible change of course," Karavaev noted.

In his opinion, there are no other political obstacles to Azerbaijan's accession to the EEU.

"This is a subject of internal debate, the inner social life of the country, which makes the choice of whether it should go to the EU or the EEU," the scientist of the Institute for Economics of the RAS summed up.