What can be expected from new Turkish elections?

On November 1st Turkey will host the second parliamentary elections of the year. The need for them is explained by the fact that after the results of the first elections, held on June 7, the country's political parties failed to agree on the formation of a new ruling coalition and a new Cabinet of Ministers.

This time, the election campaign takes place against the background of operations against PKK militants in the south-east of the country and terrorist attacks, the largest of which occurred on October 10th, as a result of the suicide-bombing of an anti-war demonstration, which killed more than 100 people.

Vestnik Kavkaza heard the opinions of experts about what we should expect from these elections.

The President of the World Academy of Citizenship, Hakan Altynay, admitted that he "will be very surprised if the results of the elections on November 1st will differ from the results of the elections on June 7th." "Maybe there will be a small difference of 1% in one direction or another," he added.

An ODTU University Professor, Huseyin Bagdzhi, also thinks that once again the AKP "will not be able to form a governing authority alone, it will be difficult for it." "But within 10 days many things can change. I do not think it will receive a huge amount of votes. Maybe a coalition government of the AKP and the Republican People's Party will be created, which will help Turkey to overcome the current crisis," he added.

The balance of political forces in Turkey on the eve of the elections will not change, member of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation Sergey Markov suggested.

"The situation is still uncertain. There are three options. The first and most likely is that the balance will remain exactly the same as it is right now, and the Justice and Development Party (AKP), as a result, will form a coalition government. It will form it, most likely, with the Kemalist Republican People's Party (CHP), or, in a second variant, with the nationalist National Action Party (MHP). This is the first basic option. Most forecasts show this, above all," the expert noted.

"In the second option, the AKP may achieve the Kurdish Party (PKK) not receiving 10% of the vote. In this case, Erdogan's party has a chance to get 60% in parliament and form a single-party government. This has the second highest probability," Markov stated.

"In third place according to probability, is the scenario that due to the terrorist attacks, the AKP will not increase, but rather reduce its number of votes, and as a result another coalition may be formed. In this case, the Kemalist CHP and the nationalist MHP have a chance of forming a majority. An invitation to the PKK to join the coalition is unlikely: it is in isolation," he said.

Regarding the question of whether there are any factors that may cause voters to change their minds, the expert noted that before the election there may be some significant events, but still, they are unlikely.

In his turn, the executive secretary of the Board of Trustees of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, head of the chair of diplomacy and consular services, Sergey Ivanov, stressed that "Turkey is a very important partner for us." "Between us, there are numerous connections in trade, the economy, a lot of Turkish companies are working here in Russia. Therefore, we are certainly looking with interest at all the events that are taking place within Turkey, and especially the elections. Now, there are a lot of predictions that Erdogan's party will lose. I do not think it is possible to organize fortune telling, who will win, who will lose. It is an ungrateful job, and this is the decision of the Turkish people, they will decide how it will be," he noted.

Earlier, on the sidelines of the XII international meeting of the discussion club 'Valdai', its scientific director, chief editor of the magazine 'Russia in Global Affairs', Fyodor Lukyanov, expressed a somewhat similar view to the correspondent of Vestnik Kavkaza. "Turkish domestic politics have entered a phase of incredible turbulence and rather dangerous development, when many processes, partly initiated by the Turkish leadership, simply threaten to get out of control. I mean internal processes that are not related to Russian-Turkish relations. But they affect everything, including our relations," he noted.