South Caucasus between confrontation and cooperation

The German Association for East European Studies (DGO) held discussions on the topic 'The South Caucasus: between confrontation and cooperation', during which questions of geopolitics, internal politics, economics and ethno-territorial conflicts in the region were discussed. The German Professor of Caucasiology from the Berlin think-tank ‘Science and Politics Foundation’, Hoeve Halbach, made an introductory presentation on South Caucasus politics.

"The conflicts in the South Caucasus occupied a secondary place in the perception of Europe due to more dramatic and geographically close developments in the Balkans. Today, the region is once again deprived of attention in Europe and in the whole world, which is concentrated on the tragic events in Syria. However, this does not mean that life in the Caucasus became calmer. On the contrary, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has once again escalated since the summer 2014. Intensified ethnic homogeneity has become one of the trends in the development of the South Caucasus in recent decades. Armenia is the most mono-ethnic country among the countries in the region. As for the secessionist regions, the most ethnically homogenous region is Nagorno-Karabakh. But the federal republics of the North Caucasus, including Chechnya, have also become much more ethnically homogeneous," the expert said.

According to Halbach, currently the concept of 'the Russian World' is hardly applicable to the countries of the South Caucasus, where the Russian population is rather insignificant after the collapse of the Soviet Union – with the exceptions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, where the population has received Russian passports. The total population of the three secessionist regions in the South Caucasus does not exceed 400 thousand people and Crimea is a huge region in comparison with them. In the last year of the Soviet Union 164 domestic territorial disputes were registered between different ethnic groups (many of which were sporadic), and a third of them were in the Caucasus region (both North and South). At the same time, the Caucasus was only 7% of the entire territory of the Soviet Union.

The expert believes that "Russia plays a dual role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: on the one hand, it serves as the chief negotiator between Armenia and Azerbaijan, while on the other, it is a major exporter of arms to both countries. The South Caucasus is a region of historical and geopolitical rivalries between empires. A 'Great Game' started in the region after 1994, since the signing of the 'Contract of the Century' with the international consortium of oil and gas companies in the Caspian Sea by Azerbaijan. The game was continued after the strengthening of the Euro-Atlantic course of Georgia, which was addressed by a more active Russian role in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The competition between the European and the Eurasian Unions and, finally, the events in Ukraine cast a long shadow over the South Caucasus and its unresolved conflicts. The struggle for influence between the European and Eurasian regions only intensifies the fault lines."

Answering a question from Vestnik Kavkaza about the possible impact of worsening Russian-Turkish relations on the South Caucasus, the expert said that currently he sees no immediate threats or significant impact of these events on the South Caucasus countries. "This absolutely unexpected turn in the relations between Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin is reminiscent of events that happened long ago, when once warm relations between Erdogan and Bashar al-Assad suddenly soured," Halbach noted.

"The transformation of the conflict through the establishment of trust between the sides does not take place in view of various problems, which include the issue of refugees, requiring a solution. Since the signing of the armistice agreement in Karabakh, Azerbaijan has become one of the countries leading in the number of internally displaced people per capita. The former Azeri inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh are a relatively small portion of all the expelled: the majority of internally displaced persons are from the territories around Nagorno-Karabakh occupied by the Armenian military. The return of people expelled from these regions is provided for in all the solutions of the conflict, however, it runs into opposition from the current population of this conflict region, which does not want to change the ethnic balance," the expert believes.

"Unresolved conflicts in the South Caucasus continue to hinder the development of the countries involved and threaten their safety even after completion of the hot phase. This causes mass migration – here you can remember about the fall in the Georgian population, which is already less than 4 million people, as well as the Armenian population. Because of the conflict with Azerbaijan, Armenia has found itself isolated in terms of the country's participation in regional energy and transport projects. The 'trench mentality', which has emerged in the countries involved in the conflict, also prevents a transformation. A significant number of casualties on either side as a result of military actions complicates the search for compromise and drives them into an 'emotional trap'. In such circumstances, any compromise can be interpreted in such a way that all the victims have been sacrificed in vain," Halbach said.

He also expressed the view that the human rights situation in Azerbaijan leaves much to be desired. The expert explained his point of view with the closure of the OSCE Office in Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, Hoeve Halbach could understand the discontent of Azerbaijan in connection with the dual approach of Europe to the Crimean and Karabakh issues. He wished that political pluralism in Azerbaijan would compare with the religious pluralism existing in the country: "There is a real religious pluralism in Azerbaijan: Shiites and Sunnis pray in the same mosques and, unlike in many other Muslim countries, there is no conflict on religious grounds."

The expert sees no threat of religious extremism in Azerbaijan in the near future. Hoeve Halbach reminded that, according to sociological studies, the role of religion in Azerbaijani society is quite small and less significant than in neighboring Armenia and Georgia. "Azerbaijan is close to the Netherlands in the rating of the importance of religion in society, while neighboring Armenia is close to Pakistan," Halbach stated. The professor described the constitutional referendum in Armenia as "a strategic prolongation of the regime."