Georgia-2015: Disappointment and new hopes

A sudden resignation

This year ended with a controversy for Georgia: suddenly, 33-year-old Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili resigned. The resignation wasn’t scandalous itself. However, the head of the government, who has the most powerful position in the country, according to the Constitution, and who is the leader of the ruling Georgian Dream coalition, hasn’t explained the situation. The former Premier listed no reasons for his withdrawal from politics in his last address to the nation. At the same time, he stressed that his government acted successfully and achieved a lot within and outside the country.

Several days ago, Garibashvili grandiosely presented the results of the activity over the past three years and announced his grand plans for the future. The report was welcomed with enthusiasm by the ruling coalition and the parliamentary majority. There was no sign of a sudden dismissing of the Cabinet.

“It is important not only to come in time, but also to leave in time,” the former Premier stated unclearly, expressing gratitude to his wife and three children for their “all-round support.” The Prime Minister didn’t say a word about the founder of the ruling coalition and his old protector, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili.

Many people in Tbilisi think that it is Ivanishvili who has “dismissed” the Premier, as the billionaire “manhandles the government from the shadows” and doesn’t like his work. There is another view that the young Prime Minister hadn’t coped with the load of responsibility in the context of growing problems; he couldn’t receive recommendations or advice from his protector, and the whole responsibility laid on him.

The last version doesn’t seem absurd, considering the fact that only the head of the government resigned. The new head of the Cabinet, the former Foreign Minister Giorgi Kvarikashvili, has already stated that none of the other ministers (except for the Foreign Minister, of course) will be replaced.

The heavy burden of the financial crisis

However, Giorgi Kvirikashvili will soon have to face the same problems. In 2015 the national currency of Georgia fell by 40%. It was a heavy blow to a country which had no serious foreign currency reserves or other resources. The devaluation of the lari caused a rise in prices and a collapse of the markets, including the property market, where stagnation improved its positions significantly. The real purchasing power of the population decreased, while the unemployment rate grew. However, previously, it had also reached 50-60% in some Georgian towns.

Moreover, the population poverty index (a very important index of development of the country, which doesn’t exceed 1% in neighboring countries) exceeds 6% in Georgia. The government referred to external reasons, first of all, to the devaluation of the Russian ruble and the Turkish lira, but that didn’t comfort pensioners or people on low incomes.

At the same time, there were achievements. For example, in 2015 Georgia began implementation of the very important program on curing hepatitis. The epidemic of hepatitis is a heritage of the late Soviet period and the 1990s, when drug addiction reached terrible scales.

However, the government managed to find the $2 billion which is necessary to cure the dangerous disease. Some well-informed people say that Bidzina Ivanishvili contributed to the program a lot, being not only a businessman, but also a philanthropist. The majority of citizens stated that they wanted to see the Minister of Healthcare David Sergeyenko, an initiator of the program, in the post of Prime Minister. But the coalition had a different view.

The Caucasus bridge from Asia to Europe

Even though it is strange, but the biggest hopes are pinned not on the new government (which is not new actually), but on the achievements of the former Premier in the foreign political sphere. Under the management of Irakli Garibashvili, Georgia officially became an important link in the New Silk Road: former Prime Minister Garibashvili personally welcomed the first 21 containers from the Pacific coast of China at Tbilisi Railway Station. At the same time, he promised citizens that “the thousands of containers that would be transported through the country from Asia to Europe would create many jobs,” when the Baku-Tbilisi-Istanbul Railway begins its operation.

In late 2015 the European Commission sent a positive message to Georgia on the long-awaited problem of the visa-free regime for Georgian tourists to Europe. The report by the working group was published a few days before the resignation of the government. It recommends the European Council and the European Parliament to cancel visas for Georgian citizens who would like to visit the countries of the Schengen zone.

The importance of the message is growing, considering the fact that the leaders of the European Commission are aware of the fact that the majority of Georgians come to Europe not to see the sights of Paris and Barcelona, but to find work there.

At the same time, the Georgian authorities managed to combine rapprochement with Europe with improvement of relations with Russia, proving that this was possible. The Russian Foreign Ministry also spoke about a simplification of the visa regime for Georgian citizens. Moreover, Moscow clearly hinted that visas could be cancelled completely if diplomatic relations were restored. This was stated by President of Russia Vladimir Putin at his annual big press conference.

The ability of the government to maintain a balance between centers of power is an achievement of 2015, which creates hopes for the future. However, whether the new/old government will be able to fulfill the hopes and manage the financial crisis, 2016 will show, it will be a year in which parliamentary elections are held.