Iranian-Saudi conflict: an expected surprise

The diplomatic conflict which has arisen between Saudi Arabia and Iran was "an expected surprise", the participants of a round-table discussion on the possible implications of the crisis in relations between Riyadh and Tehran said today.

A senior research fellow of the Institute for Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladimir Sazhin, said that "we've seen a long deterioration in their relations in recent years, so the reason for the crisis could be not a punishment, but something else, the conflict was expected," he said, recalling that Arabs and Persians have been in very difficult relations for centuries.

"The geopolitical conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia is a key one for today. Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr was arrested in 2012 and sentenced in 2014, but he was executed only at the beginning of 2016. Why? I still think that it is directly related to the conclusion of the agreement on the Iranian nuclear program," the expert believes.

According to Sazhin, it's not just about the economic strengthening of Iran after the lifting of sanctions. "Iran is already supplying oil and getting paid for it. Saudi Arabia is concerned about this – nobody wants to have a fiscal opponent. But most of all they are concerned about Iran's activities in Shiite communities throughout Arabia, which has never been stopped. The growing power of Iran allows Tehran to influence these communities more actively," Sazhin noted.

That is why such a provocation was carried out, Vladimir Sazhin concluded. "There is a 'game' in Iran: the seizure and the destruction of embassies – they love to do it. So the calculation of Riyadh was pretty accurate. Therefore, Tehran is now doing everything possible to alleviate these serious complications," the expert stressed.

According to him, the confrontation will not lead to a military conflict. "Psychological warfare will continue, but I am sure that this will not lead to a real war. The countries have different potentials, Iran's advantage is undeniable. In addition, the United States would not intervene militarily," he expects.

The deputy head of the Council of the Russian Diplomats Association, Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Ambassador Andrey Baklanov, in his turn, offered to carefully sort out who is interested in further aggravation of confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran. "How can Iran count on a leading position in the Sunni region? This is a big exaggeration. Saudi Arabia, of course, has never concealed that it counts on a special position in the Islamic world, as it has the main shrines – but it does not claim to be a hegemon in the region," he pointed out.

"It seems to me that all kinds of groups on the territory of Yemen have a very serious impact on the region, for example, the groups experiencing the need for financial support from one or another country. They incite side conflicts. Two centers of power were formed in the market: US to the UK (according to experts, they have 40-45% of the actual pricing), and oil-producing countries. Now we see that a wedge is being driven between producing states. Thus, OPEC's geopolitical impact is reducing," Baklanov said, stressing the importance of Russia's foreign policy, which counters these developments.

The Deputy Director of the Institute of Forecasting and Political settlement, Alexander Kuznetsov, described the situation as the peak of confrontation between Tehran and Riyadh.

"The main responsibility for this lies on Saudi Arabia, of course. Let me remind you that immediately after the execution, the UN Secretary General said that the trial was not transparent. The policy of Saudi Arabia in recent years is quite aggressive: Bahrain's bloody crackdown, bombings in Yemen, terrorist support in Syria. The problem is that Saudi Arabia has the support of the United States," he said.