Has the ruble stopped obeying oil?

Yesterday evening the price of oil fell below 30 dollars per barrel for the first time since 2004.

Later, this fall was compensated for, and the cost of hydrocarbons has slightly increased. As of 10:00, a barrel of Brent oil rose in price to 30.4 dollars, Interfax reports.

Against the background of these fluctuations in oil prices, the ruble demonstrates stability and is even slightly strengthening.

By 10:41 the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow stock exchange fell in comparison with the level at the start of trading by 28 kopecks, to 76.4 rubles. As for the European currency, it fell in price by 39 kopecks, to 83.01 rubles.

The chairman of the Duma Committee on Economic Policy, Innovative Development and Entrepreneurship, Anatoly Aksakov, in an interview with a correspondent of Vestnik Kavkaza, explained the currently observed stability of the Russian currency by the fact that now "there is a need for ruble resources for taxpayers and for the fulfillment of obligations related to the implementation of programs within the country."

"That is why the ruble is not out on the foreign exchange market, and is spent on domestic tasks. This is the first thing. Secondly, I think that the Central Bank pursues a policy related to the task to maintain the level of liquidity at a level that would not allow it to be actively used for operations on the foreign exchange market," he said.

In addition, it was also affected by the fact that "the devaluation of the ruble, which has occurred recently, has reduced the demand for imports." Also, in his opinion, this may be due to the fact that "the Central Bank enters the market and carries out interventions there, in order to avoid sharp jumps in the currency market."

"Currently, the oil price is repeating last year's trajectory, so this movement will continue until March. Accordingly, the ruble will have a downward trend, and then will begin to strengthen, as the price of oil will rise," Anatoly Aksakov suggested.

In his turn, Professor of the Department of the stock market and investments of the HSE, Alexander Abramov, believes that, first of all, this is connected with the fact that now, "the demand for currency is much less, due to the fall in the incomes of individuals, and the fact that for the repayment of external debts, companies need less money right now."

"And relatively speaking, the banks now have little ruble liquidity due to restrictions on the ruble repo market. In addition, it is possible, after all, that for the financing of certain expenses, the Ministry of Finance may spend the reserve fund, which means the supply of additional currency to the foreign exchange market. It also can, theoretically, affect the lower rate of the dollar," he said.

"It seems to me that those factors, which I have mentioned, will be quite stable in the coming months, and this trend will continue," Alexander Abramov concluded.