Russia and four Middle East leaders

Russia has to be ready for negative scenarios in implementation of projects in the nuclear power sphere in the Middle East, as the main restricting factors for the sphere are political instability and the threat of terrorism. This conclusion was reached by experts of the Valdai international discussion club at a session where the report “Prospects of the Development of Nuclear Power in the Middle East: Interests of Russia” was presented.

Irina Zvyagelskaya, Chief Researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the RAS, states that the main trend, to which we should pay attention, is a clear increase in the influence of the regional powers and a corresponding decrease in the influence of the global powers in the Middle East. “Unfortunately, in recent years we have often been following a rather primitive concept that everything that happens in the Middle East and elsewhere is mainly the work of the global powers. I have always considered this to be primitive. But in any case, now we see that there are four main leaders in the region. They are Israel, Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia. The relations between these countries, interests and ambitions largely affect what happens in the region,” the expert believes.

According to her, the growth of this hegemony on the part of the regional powers has raised the question that the development of economic relations is not a safety net anymore. “Political ambition and political ideas very quickly ruin bilateral economic relations. Turkey is a very clear example of how an authoritarian leader of the sultanic type on the basis of his own ideas about the role that Turkey is playing in the region and in the world now, is starting a completely obvious aggravation of relations,” Zvyagelskaya states.

She is sure that at the global level Russia has achieved some progress, an active breakthrough on Syria: “Due to Russian intervention we have brought down the balance of power there and opened up some opportunities for starting a political dialogue. However, our policy in Syria is not always easing these relations. I am not quite sure that we will always have perfect relations with Iran, because Tehran has its own ambitions and its own ideas about what role it should play in Syria. Not to mention the Sunni Arab states that have no particular enthusiasm for what we are doing in Syria.”

Zvyagelskaya thinks that bilateral relations, including development of business partnerships and the development of nuclear power, will now depend on these political sentiments and these political changes that we are going to face in the Middle East.

“It is very important for Russia to develop cooperation with the countries of the Middle East. The question can be raised about our ability to do it in the most effective way and to make it so that it is always in our interests,” the expert thinks.