Dollar 'gets sick'

The dollar exchange rate dropped to a record low since 2009 due to adverse statistical data from the US.

Yesterday the US services business activity index decreased. According to experts, it is a kind of 'thermometer' of the economy in the United States.

This led to a decline in the dollar exchange rate against major world currencies by 1.7%, which was immediately followed by a fall in US 10-year bond yields, Gazeta.ru reports.

As of 13:14 the price of Brent crude oil rose to $35.08 per barrel, while the WTI rose to $32.28 per barrel.

This also led to a strengthening of the ruble. As of 13:32, the dollar exchange rate fell by 0.4 rubles to 79.16 rubles, the euro fell by 0.08 rubles to 85.32 rubles. For some time the dollar and euro rates on the Moscow Exchange even reached a point of 75.8 rubles and 84 rubles respectively.

The director of the IBDA program, doctor of economic sciences, Professor Mikhail Portnoy, in an interview with a correspondent of Vestnik Kavkaza warned that we shouldn't rely on the weakening of the dollar as the basis for a rise in oil prices, because "it is a short-term event". "A weak dollar will not be able to raise oil prices, while the excess supply is pushing them the quotes will be adjusted due to the data on the US oil reserves," he noted.

The weakening of the dollar could affect the US Federal Reserve's future decisions on the key rate. "They can postpone the change in rates, because there is some hesitation in the US growth today, which is confirmed by statistics. If it will be confirmed by the data on unemployment and other parameters of the economy, the Federal Reserve will wait to raise rates," Mikhail Portnoy expects, adding that the sudden 'illness' of the dollar will have no effect on the state of the ruble.

The Chairman of the Board of the National Currency Association (NCA), Dmitry Piskulov, agreed that the weakening of the dollar is a short-term phenomenon. "This is due to the macro-economic statistics, which were considered by the market participants to a small deterioration. But the data, which includes the increase in industrial production, GDP and the purchasing managers' index, changes all the time. Market participants are playing on these conjunctural moments, therefore such fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate are absolutely normal," the expert explained.

According to him, the dollar's decline by 1.7% will affect the probability of the US Federal Reserve's decision to change the rate indirectly. "The US central bank monitors business activity, growth of the economy, inflation and unemployment. The appreciation of the dollar reduces US export opportunities. Therefore, when it comes to a decision to raise or not to raise, they look at the listed indicators, but also take into account the state of the financial markets. A stronger dollar means that the purchasing power of the US companies is growing, which is not very profitable for the US economy, therefore they can postpone any change in rates," Dmitry Piskulov said.