Berlin fears Moscow's 'hybrid influence'

There was diplomatic and information sparring between Moscow and Berlin lasting more than two weeks about the 13-year-old girl Lisa from Berlin, who allegedly "was subjected to sexual violence by refugees". The information was originally distributed on social networks in exactly this form and was immediately picked up by many anti-migrant German protesters, as well as a significant part of the Russian media, because in addition to German citizenship, the girl also has Russian citizenship.

According to official data, any rape or abduction is impossible. According to the German side, on January 11th the girl did not dare to go home due to problems at school and spent the night at her 19-year-old German friend's house. The police did not find any evidence of an intimate connection between them. A medical examination of Lisa also did not confirm a sexual assault. The girl, according to police, has put forward four different conflicting versions of events, so it's difficult to create a picture of what really happened.

Simultaneously, the prosecutor's office is investigating in another direction: allegedly, a few months before Lisa's disappearance in January, she was involved in voluntary intimate relationships with two young men of Turkish origin, and one of them is a German citizen. Since the girl had not yet turned 14, those young men can be prosecuted, however, it has no direct relation to the incident that took place on January 11th. Thus, the version of a rape committed by refugees was categorically denied.

Probably, this case would not have caused such a wide resonance if it were not for several circumstances, which determined the accompanying background information. Firstly, the incident occurred after the Christmas events in Cologne and other German cities, where groups of refugees sexually harassed women and the police were trying to hide it from the public. That's why the news about another alleged rape involving migrants was met by a general wave of indignation and many people view the denials of the Berlin police with suspicion. Secondly, the issue became international after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called on the Berlin authorities "not to cover up the story with the Russian girl Lisa," referring to the story in the context of the migrant problem in Europe. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who is usually quite moderate and structurally adjusted in relation to Russia, reacted sharply to the statement of his Russian counterpart, advising Moscow not to intervene in an already tough immigration debate in Germany, as well as not to use Lisa's case "for political propaganda." Lavrov's statements were also discussed during a meeting with the authorized representative of the German Foreign Ministry, to which the Russian ambassador was invited in Berlin.

An expert from the DGAP think-tank (the German Council on Foreign Relations), Stefan Meister, is sure that the Kremlin deliberately "promoted" Lisa's story through a planned media campaign to "strengthen the uncertainty of German society and support anti-democratic groups like Pegida." Meister believes that Sergei Lavrov's statements, which caused resentment in Berlin, had not burst from his lips by accident – "they were initiated from the very top." Speculation that Russia continues intensive contacts with far-right movements and parties like Pegida, the AfD or NPD, are regularly voiced by the German media. By strengthening Germany's ultra-right wing, Russia is stepping up the pressure on Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose stance on the anti-Russian sanctions is well known. The Kremlin did not choose the moment for the information attack casually – Merkel's rating is falling in connection with the refugee crisis, and after the events in Cologne her position in the internal German migration debate has become particularly vulnerable. Experts suggest that Moscow is implementing a "hybrid war" against Berlin – and if there are no 'little green men' in the country, then the information influence is causing concern among policymakers. According to one of the members of the Bundestag Defense Committee, who wished to remain anonymous, "the Russian information campaign began with the massive development of the German office of the Russia Today TV channel and the Ruptly media service, which sell television coverage below the market price." CDU deputy Roderich Kiesewetter has also stated that the AfD party is funded by Moscow.

If we agree with Stefan Meister, and Roderich Kiesewetter, as well as other sources close to the German government, and assume that Moscow is betting on the far-right, the question arises why the choice fell on this political segment. This can be explained by the fact that the ultra-right extra-parliamentary opposition at the moment is the only force in the entire political spectrum of Germany, which rigidly confronts Angela Merkel's policy on the refugee issue, which is sensitive for Germans. Neither the 'Greens' nor left-wingers, nor the Socialists will criticize the Chancellor's policy on this issue due to their ideological frameworks. It is true that the CDU's faction partners – the Bavarian CSU regional party led by Horst Seehofer, represented in the parliament and the ruling coalition – criticizes the Berlin authorities and Merkel because of their migration policy. By the way, Seehofer recently paid an economic visit to Moscow, which has already provoked the discontent of many parliamentarians, who are suspicious of the Bavarians' desire to conduct "their own foreign policy."

Germany's special coordinator for Russia policy, Gernot Erler, reprimanded the Bavarian Prime Minister that he injured "German and European interests" by visiting Moscow. According to Erler, Seehofer is suffering from "insatiable thirst for revenge", alluding to the difficult relations between the CSU leader and Merkel, who is the leader of the CDU. The two allied parties represented in the Bundestag as united faction were divided by the refugee issue, and many representatives of the economic and political elite in Germany are not happy about the anti-Russian sanctions.

But if we talk about the domestic prospects of Seehofer's CSU, the distinct regional character hardly leaves the party a chance to survive alone at the federal level (such attempts were made in the history of the party). That is, the 'divorce' with the CDU will actually cross the Bavarians out of the federal politics, so any criticism of Merkel and her policy has certain limits. For example, though Seehofer called for the lifting of sanctions in the foreseeable future during his visit to Moscow, however he emphasized that "Russia must fulfill its homework" on the Minsk agreements.

In contrast to the CSU, ultra-right parties are not constrained by regional and similar policy frameworks. And the strengthening of the radical right segment, in particular, the AfD, occurs primarily due to transition of the electorate of the Christian Democrats to them. In the short term, the AfD has a very high chance of entering the local parliaments of several federal states, and in the medium term it may even it enter the Bundestag, which, however, will depend on the development of the situation with refugees from the Middle East. As long as there is a crisis, the party cannot complain about the lack of media attention. Moreover, provocative statements of the party leadership, such as proposals to open fire at refugees trying to illegally cross the German border, continue to fuel interest to the party, which is scandalous sometimes (but controversy has never disturbed the most popular US presidential candidate among Republicans, Donald Trump). You can safely assume that Moscow, in view of the difficult relations with the Berlin authorities , has sounded out the possibility of cooperation with a potential new political force.