Armenia: strange coalition and its plans

This week the ruling Republican Party of Armenia and Dashnaktsutyun signed a coalition agreement, due to which Dashnaktsutyun got three positions of ministers and two positions of governors. On February 18th the head of the Dashnaktsutyun parliamentary faction, Armen Rustamyan, announced the names of the ministers and governors from Dashnaktsutyun. Within the reached agreement, the Minister of Territorial Management will be David Lokyan; the Minister of Education – Levon Mkrtchyan; the Minister of Economy – Artsvik Minasyan. In previous coalitions, Lokyan was the Minister of Agriculture and Mkrtchyan was the Minister of Education. At the moment, Artsvik Minasyan is an MP from Dashnaktsutyun, a member of the Commission for Financial and Monetary Affairs. Moreover, it is planned that Dashnaktsutyun will get two positions of governors. For example, Gabriel Gezalyan will be appointed as the governor of the Aragatsiot region, while Ovsel Simonyan will be the governor of the Shirak region.

On February 19th a draft on amendments to the Law on the Structure of the Government was quickly adopted in the second and final reading during another parliamentary session. The amendments require division of the Ministry of Territorial Management and Emergency Situations.

The tone of relations between representatives of the RPA and Dashnaktsutyun significantly changed last week. Previously, the Republicans criticized Dashnaktsutyun for withdrawing from responsibility for the authorities, while Dashnaktsutyun replied that the RPA had discredited itself. Now, ahead of signing the coalition agreements, fussiness and a hostile attitude toward each other have turned into very peaceful statements about long-term cooperation and mutual responsibility for the country’s fate.

However, the changes in rhetoric don’t mean that negative attitudes inside the ruling party have been eliminated, and the Republicans have accepted the idea that they have to share power with Dashnaktsutyun, which has no serious resources or influence. After joining the ruling coalition, nobody can say that Dashnaktsutyun still has no serious resources or influence.

To understand the situation inside the RPA, it is necessary to remember that the initiator of the coalition with Dashnaktsutyun is President Serzh Sargsyan, who heads the ruling party. And his supporters had to fulfill the demand of their leader to give some official positions to Dashnaktsutyun members. In the context of Sargsyan’s statement, which was made before the referendum on December 6th 2015, that no party could be sure of getting a majority of votes in the parliamentary elections of 2017, some experts believed that signing an agreement with Dashnaktsutyun had become a reserve option for the President. Sargsyan wants to ensure control of the future parliament or to get a controlling interest, i.e. he needs a parliamentary majority of the RPA. It seems the option with Dashnaktsutyun became an insurance in case of a possible failure of the first and main plan.

As for Dashnaktsutyun, the party gets a real ‘slice’ of power, unlike the situation in previous coalitions. The point is in very important ministries – of Economy and of Territorial Management. Thus, Dashnaktsutyun gets access to financial flows.

However, the whole negotiating process and the idea of the coalition contradict normal political logic. Three examples can be cited here. Firstly, the memorandum on the coalition was signed before the elections. Secondly, the coalition was formed when the ruling party had a majority in the parliament. Thirdly, the two political forces make it clear by signing the memorandum that the results of the parliamentary elections have been predetermined.

Mikheil Saakashvili was also sure about results of the elections in 2012 in Georgia… The situation may be much more difficult in Armenia. For the first time in over 15 years, international organizations, which previously passively reacted to the opposition’s calls to make amendments to the Electoral Code, suddenly began to speak about publication of the lists of voters. Apparently, the international organizations will actively stand for changes in the Electoral Code. At the same time, the authorities show a tough position, stating that they won’t come to terms. However, there are a lot of ways to influence the Armenian authorities from abroad.