Will Sargsyan be successful?

In the political life of Armenia there are processes directly related to the constitutional amendments adopted by the referendum on December 6th. No sooner had society recovered from the politically illogical step of the creation of a ruling coalition between the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) that is self-sufficient and full of resources and the uninfluential ARF ‘Dashnaktsutyun’ (ARFD), as the  new processes started, marked by a change in the structure of government, as well as in the positions of the main players in the political map.

To convince the experts, both measures were aimed solely at strengthening the position of President Serzh Sargsyan, who has already started preparing for the forthcoming parliamentary elections scheduled for the beginning of April next year. Among the measures to strengthen his position can be named changes in the structure of government. We are talking about the presidential decree of March 1st, the division of the Ministry of Finance and the State Revenue Committee (SRC) into two departments.

The new chairman of the CGD became a man from the inner circle  of Sargsyan, a member of his administration, Hovhannes Hovsepyan, who has worked for 8 years as the head of the Presidential Monitoring Service. The former head of the structure which included the Ministry of Finance and the SRC, Gagik Khachatryan, has remained in the position of Minister of Finance. These two structures were merged two years ago, and Prime Minister Hovik Abrahamyan has repeatedly stated the need to optimize the public agencies. Various international organizations have repeatedly pointed out the impermissibility of expanding the bureaucracy. On the backdrop of the promises of the Prime Minister and the comments of international organizations and against the background of the socio-economic crisis, the president decides to divide two major departments and an actual increase in bureaucracy. And as the head of the CGD controlling financial flows, President Serzh Sargsyan appointed a person personally loyal to him.

Even earlier, in accordance with the amendments to the legislation adopted on an urgent basis, the Ministry of Territorial Administration was separated from the Ministry of Emergency Situations. The former head of the superministry, Armen Yeritsyan, continues to work as head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations,while ARF representative David Lokyan was appointed the Minister of Territorial Administration, in accordance with the agreement on political cooperation between the RPA and the ARF. And this is an agency that has the levers for the active use of administrative resources in the regions during the elections.

Both of these appointments hit hard the positions of Hovik Abrahamyan, who  controls neither David Lokian nor Hovhannes Hovsepyan.

Other new key appointments were made with the same logic – the president appointed people from his circle to responsible positions.

We are talking about the new head of the National Security Service, Georgy Kutoyan, who occupied the post of Deputy Prosecutor General previously. Kutoyan worked as the Deputy Attorney General for about two weeks, but before that, for five years until 2016 he served as Sargsyan's assistant. The newly appointed chief of the National Security Council earlier in his activity never came into contact with the national security sphere.

This also applies to the former deputy chairman of the Monitoring Chamber, Levon Yolyan, appointed by decree of the President to the post of the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, who never before had anything to do with the energy sector. Yolyan admitted that he needed time to familiarize himself with energy problems. He, like Hovsepyan, was appointed on the eve of the constitutional referendum as deputy chairman of the propaganda headquarters of the ‘Yes’ campaign of the ruling RPA. Observers believe that these appointments of Hovsepyan and Yolyan were a reward for their work in the headquarters.

Today in Yerevan there is a lot of talk about the systematic weakening of the position of the prime minister by the president, who, after the expiry of his presidential term, can take the premiership. Due to the constitutional changes and following staff appointments, including the introduction of the government members of the ARF, the president has weakened the position of the prime minister. According to the political technologist Armen Badalyan, the creation of the coalition and the latest structural and personnel changes have made the future political career of the Prime Minister very uncertain.

Now in a number of spheres, as well as in the police and other agencies there are personnel changes, but people are appointed to key positions on the basis of personal loyalty to the president. According to the political commentator of the publication ‘7or.am’, Karen Hakobjanyan, the President acts on the basis of his personal interests. "Sargsyan really has nothing to say to society. He has long shown that he is extremely busy with satisfying his private interests and the interests of his narrow circle. The latest appointments can serve as an example of this."

Thus, the president initiated the constitutional changes to ensure the transition from a presidential to a parliamentary form of government with the aim of reproducing his power, and is taking active steps to prepare for a transition period. This period will cover the time after the parliamentary elections in April 2017 and to the end of the presidential term of Sargsyan in April 2018.

While the president is successful in the issue of ‘ensuring a reliable rearguard’. However, one year is a long time to accurately calculate everything and not be threatened by all sorts of surprises, both in terms of the outcome of the parliamentary elections and the behavior of the members of his team, and the actions of external players.