Russian military operation in Syria launched peace process

After the withdrawal of the main group of Russian aerospace forces from Syria, the work of the Center for Reconciliation of Warring Sides at the Hmeymim air base is continuing non-stop. Twice a day there is an exchange of information with representatives of the authorized body of the United States in Jordan and the operational center for the ceasefire of the International Syria Support Group in Geneva. However, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, in spite of the progress achieved in establishing a ceasefire regime between the troops of the moderate opposition and units of the Syrian armed forces, armed formations of Daesh and 'Jabhat al Nusra' did not abandon their attempts to disrupt the agreements achieved – attacks continue on the positions of government troops, militias and neighborhoods in Damascus, the provinces of Homs, Aleppo and Latakia.

Meanwhile, the head of the Department of International Organizations and Global Political Processes at the M.V. Lomonosov MSU University, Andrey Sidorov, believes that the actions of the Russian Air Forces in Syria have achieved a very positive result: "Daesh has suffered quite serious damage, at least, the triumphal procession carried out by the terrorist state for almost two years has been suspended. From a political point of view, Assad’s regime has been supported, and I believe that he is the only governor of Syria who can consolidate around himself large and fair support. At least, the forces that are able to fight the terrorist threat, I mean the national army of Syria, support Assad. So Assad, for a certain period of time during the Syrian settlement, should stay in power."

According to the expert, the Russian military operation in Syria launched the peace process. "I'm not sure that without the Russian operations, without the operations of the Russian Air Forces, whether the peace process in general would be launched. This could have continued for quite a long time and with the same success until Damascus would have fallen, while the terrorists would not have captured the whole of Syria, so it could be continued this way. The intervention of the Russian Air Forces became just the factor that has changed decisively the situation in Syria, leading to the fact that the various parties in the conflict, except for the most notorious ones, are now trying to negotiate, at least to reach some contractual obligations."

According to Sidorov, the withdrawal of the Russian aerospace forces was caused not only by the implementation of political tasks, but also military and tactical considerations: "Since the end of March, as we know, the weather conditions changed in Syria. The Khamsin will blow there, it is drought, a wind, raising clouds of dust, sand and so on. It will be much more difficult to fly in such conditions. At the same time, our president, V.V. Putin, said that Russia, in principle, could be back there in a few hours. And the gauges can be raised from the ships of the Caspian fleet at any time. Therefore, in this case, a situation that may change is under control."

At the same time, next week, Moscow is expecting a visit by the US Secretary of State John Kerry. "The arrival of Kerry in Moscow is an important moment in the current relations between Russia and the United States, as the Secretary of State, of course, is likely to discuss further options of the development of the situation in Syria. One possible route is its federalization, to which Assad and the opposition are opposed. In this case, the United States and Russia, having a common position, could contribute to a resolution of a number of the problems, including the Kurdish problem. And those issues that will surely excite the negotiators in Geneva. And from our point of view, and from the point of view of the Americans, we cannot allow these negotiations to decay. That is, to resume a full-scale military confrontation, in principle, this cannot be tolerated. Although, for obvious reasons, neither the US nor Russia will carry out military operations relating to the occupation of the country. Only in this way, perhaps, would it be possible to resolve this process. Neither the US nor Russia are ready for this, and the best option here would be an agreement between Damascus, between the ruling regime and the opposition. Most likely, Kerry will talk about this," the expert predicts.