Russia needs peace in Karabakh, not war

Russia is a key player in the Caucasus, and therefore it is no surprise that it tries to promote the political settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The Russian Federation has no desire to participate in a war between its two allies, experts agree when talking about the ways out of the conflict, which Moscow is trying to find together with Baku and Yerevan.

‘Vestnik Kavkaza’ continues a series of interviews on the peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and today our guests are a Professor of the Western University Fikret Sadikhov and a journalist, expert on the Caucasus Vadim Dubnov.

First of all Fikret Sadikhov pointed out that after the fighting in April Russia will inevitably intensify its roale as a mediator between the parties of the conflict. 

"It is clear that Russia is a key player in the region, and its participation in the negotiation process is logical and justified. The work is underway to put together a plan that at the initial stage will return five areas to Azerbaijan, followed by the return of the refugees and further negotiations. By the way, Baku after Kazan [the meeting in Kazan] and the publication of the updated Madrid principles accepted such option. However, the Armenian side insisted that together with the withdrawal of the Armenian occupying forces from the Azerbaijani lands, Nagorno-Karabakh must be recognized as an independent state. Azerbaijan will never accept that," he said.

The expert expects that the new proposals will take into account that Baku will not recognize Karabakh’s independence in exchange for the return of the occupied land. 

"Most likely, Lavrov’s upcoming visit to Yerevan will somewhat clarify this question. I think that officials in Moscow is well aware of Baku’s stand and they are unlikely to insist on the conditions of the Armenian side. I think very soon we will know what this plan about and how it will affect the whole process.

Let me remind you that after the events in April, the situation changed after Azerbaijan demonstrated its political will, military capabilities, and the determination that it will not tolerate forever the occupation of its territories," said Fikret Sadikhov.

Vadim Dubnov attributes Moscow’s active actions to the strategic foreign policy agenda that Russia has in the Caucasus.

"First of all, Russia would not like to defend Armenia or participate in such a war in any way," he said, speaking about probability of Russia’s involvement in full-scale war between Armenia and Azerbaijan where Moscow could support only one side.

At the same time, the expert is skeptical about the prospects for a political settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. According to him, there are two peaceful solutions to the problem. One of them is only relatively peaceful. 

"That is to maintain the status quo. It is not satisfactory to Azerbaijan that is why it will try from to time to disrupt the standstill (and to be honest, it is obliged to do so); then we will see events similar to those that we witnessed in April. I think this option is very likely, because I do not really believe in the peace process,’’ expert said.

The second way is the implementation of the Madrid principles, which is quite problematic. 

"The Madrid principles is the only to a large extent general formula of the settlement that exists today; it implies: the return of the territories, a referendum and peacekeepers. The problem is how to implement it. In particular, it is unclear who will participate in the referendum and how the refugees will return,” Vadim Dubnov concluded.