Karabakh meeting on the Neva: Andrei Yepifantsev's opinion

The political scientist Andrei Yepifantsev, told Vestnik Kavkaza, commenting on the trilateral meeting of the presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia on the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement, which was held yesterday in St. Petersburg, that it is necessary to consolidate the efforts of the international community in order to achieve a full settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

According to him, since a peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is impossible without international pressure, we should not expect a breakthrough at the Karabakh meeting on the Neva. "The fact is that, although the conditions have changed, it is not enough for any of the sides to reach its goals. Armenia's maximum task was to legalize Nagorno-Karabakh, or at least to maintain the status quo. It is clear that these tasks were called into big question. On the other hand, Azerbaijan's goal to return its territories, either militarily or diplomatically, was not completed," the expert noted.

He explained such a paradox with the changing public sentiments both in Armenia and Azerbaijan. "Armenia's small military and diplomatic defeat in April has led to the radicalization of society. Now society has united on the basis of the "no concessions to Azerbaijan" position. On the other hand, Azerbaijan's society felt the taste of victory. As a result, we can see some expectations and joyful sentiments, which might be groundless, but nevertheless there is a feeling that now everything can be solved through military means and that the situation has changed. Therefore, any decision, any compromise from one side or the other, which could have been accepted by the presidents, would not be accepted by the society," the political scientist explained.

Andrei Epifantsev believes that the current situation resembles the situation with the Madrid principles, which were not accepted by the societies of the two countries. That is why there could be only two solutions to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict left. "The first one is the military solution of the problem. In this case Baku can either win or lose. In the latter case, Armenia will further strengthen its positions in Nagorno-Karabakh. The second solution is a very strong pressure from the international community: it must unite, develop a plan to resolve the situation and begin to apply pressure on the sides of the conflict. Such a plan would include a painful compromise for Azerbaijan and Armenia. The problem is that both ways are impossible to implement now," the expert stressed.

"Firstly, Russia cannot resolve the issue alone, the minimal requirement is that all the OSCE Minsk Group member countries will participate in the settlement. Moreover, there is a need to consolidate the international community. We see that the international community, especially the OSCE Minsk Group member countries, are not ready to negotiate on Karabakh, because the relations between them worsened on other issues: Ukraine, the refugee problem in Europe, internal political Russian problems, and so on. The society is not ready to develop a consolidated position; therefore, a breakthrough is impossible. But the meeting in St. Petersburg is positive because, judging by the agreed statement of the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Aliyev and Sargsyan tried to avoid further escalation of the conflict, which is already a compromise," Andrei Epifantsev concluded.