Is there EU after Brexit?

On Thursday, June 23, the UK will host referendum on the country's secession from the European Union (the so-called Brexit).

The voting was preceded by an extensive media campaign of both opponents and supporters of Brexit. According to opponents, the UK's secession will lead to chaos on the global markets, will damage London's status as one of the financial centers, will damage trade relations between the UK and other EU member states and will result in significant growth of unemployment and depreciation of the national currency.

In turn, Eurosceptics believe that by remaining a part of the EU, the country will lose significant share of sovereignty, leaving adoption of important decisions to Brussels. Besides London also has to pay for the membership. According to media reports, in 2015 it cost the British budget 8.5 billion pounds (about $12.5 billion). In addition, Eurosceptics believe that Brexit will allow London to deal with the migration crisis, thus increasing the level of security.

In an interview to Vestnik Kavkaza, the head of the sector for military and political analysis of the RAS Institute of World Economy and International Relations Sergey Oznobishchev pointed out that the change in public opinion of Britain in favor of secession from the EU has to do with efforts of the authorities. "In order to influence potential voters, public and influential figures were involved, those who can speak well and be convincing. People are dissatisfied with the situation, with what is happening to prices and taxes. And this dissatisfaction transformed into dissatisfaction with the European Union," the expert noted.

As an example, he recalled the collapse of the USSR, when everyone in the republics decided that they will live better separately, but life proved the opposite some time later.

Speaking about the future of the EU after a possible Brexit, he emphasized that this event will have a negative impact on the EU. "Should one country leave, similar sentiments will appear in other states," he explained.

At the same time, he pointed out that Russia has a certain illusory idea that if this is bad for the West, it will be better for our country and it will be easier for Moscow to pursue its political line.

The head of the Center for Strategic Development of the CIS Countries under the RAS Institute of Europe Alexander Gusev stressed that according to recent public opinion polls, about 70% of British citizens, who plan to vote, will choose to stay in the European Union.

According to the expert, the murder of Joe Cox, who was a member of the Labour Party, a mother of two, and opposed Brexit, “added fuel to the fire, and affected the opinion that it is necessary to support the idea of Britain staying in the EU."

"So I will not be surprised at all. I can even predict that tomorrow British citizens will not vote for secession from the EU," he concluded.