In Russia may allow free export of oil

In 2018 in Russia can reset the export duty on oil, while increasing the taxes on production. Respective capabilities considering the Russian government.

According to Bloomberg, these measures will deprive  Belarus and Kazakhstan of duty-free supplies in the market advantage, but also bring additional revenues to the budget. The publication notes that the proposal is not intended to increase the overall tax burden on oil supplies, but it will lead to higher prices for the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEC).

In addition, the Ministry of Finance is considering possible mechanisms of compensation for the oil refining industry if the domestic oil prices increase, including negative excises.

The head of the Center for International Energy Markets ERI RAS, Vyacheslav Kulagin, in an interview with a ‘Vestnik Kavkaza’ correspondent that a possible zero export duties on oil and increasing taxes on production is a continuation of the story of "tax maneuver" when export duties decreased and MET rates were on the rise.

"If that happens, we should expect a rise in prices in the domestic market. They will reach the export prices. As a ‘‘there will be a flexible system with a tax maneuver,’’ he said.

"In addition, it will be necessary to pay attention to components. For example, earlier we had a ‘tax maneuver’ prices for condensate gas have sufficiently increased. Therefore, it will be necessary to monitor how rates will change. It will depend on examination of the document in detail," Vyacheslav Kulagin said.

Senior analyst at Uralsib Capital, Alexey Kokin, drew attention to the fact that everything will depend on fluctuations in the mineral extraction tax rates. 

"The government will need to raise MET in order to compensate the dropped income from fees. In my opinion, MET will rise to the necessary level, therefore it won’t affect oil production, but is will influence processing and in the prices of petroleum products in Russia. I think the export duties will be abolished not only in respect of crude oil, but also oil products. Accordingly, due to the fact that input oil will be more expensive, the profitability of recycling can be reduced. In this case, the main risk is associated with the abolition of duties and increased in prices of petroleum products in Russia. This is the reason why the measure is still delayed, i.e. export duties were reduced, but not abolished,’’ the expert said.