'Turkish Stream' vs 'South Stream': what will Russia choose?

Russian and Turkish presidents, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, held talks in St. Petersburg on Tuesday. At a press conference held after the meeting, Vladimir Putin said that Moscow and Ankara would resume work on the Turkish Stream gas pipeline, pointing out that the Turkish side has taken certain policy decisions to continue this project.

On August 8, the Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov said that Bulgaria and Russia may restore frozen energy projects, including the South Stream project. "Bulgaria and Russia reached an agreement to set up working groups on restoration of energy projects, including the South Stream gas pipeline," RIA Novosti cited him as saying.

The director of the Center for Studies of World Energy Markets at the RAS Institute of Energy Research, Vyacheslav Kulagin, speaking to Vestnik Kavkaza, noted in the first place that both projects can be implemented; therefore, Russia has to choose the most advantageous option. According to the expert, the construction of a gas pipeline to Bulgaria is attractive both to Russia and the EU, as it involves direct gas supplies.

"However, the South Stream can be implemented only if we have an absolute guarantee. If there are any risks, the Turkish Stream will be considered as an alternative. The construction of the pipeline does not require a consent of the EU, its implementation depends on bilateral relations between Moscow and Ankara," he said.

The expert drew attention to the fact that now Russian partners need to convince Moscow to choose their projects. "Bulgaria is interested in the South Stream, Turkey - in the Turkish Stream. In addition, there is the Nord Stream, which is interesting for Germany," he said.

The director of the Center for Studies of World Energy Markets at the RAS Institute of Energy Research also reminded that Russian gas supplies to Turkey via the Blue Stream satisfy less than half of Ankara’s needs. "It is possible to receive additional amounts via the South Stream, or go back to another project - the construction of additional line of the Blue Stream," he explained.

In addition, the expert pointed out that after the implementation of the Turkish Stream, Europe will fall into a rather strong dependence on Turkey. "Large volumes of Russian gas pass through Turkey, as well as Azerbaijani gas. Therefore, Europe decided to revive the South Stream after witnessing the warming Russian-Turkish relations," Vyacheslav Kulagin said.

Speaking about whether the simultaneous implementation of both projects is possible, he stressed that it is impractical. “There are options of laying lines that will not operate at their full capacity. It is quite possible that another line of the Blue Stream will be built in order to meet Turkey's consumption demands. Naturally, it is better to use a direct route," Vyacheslav Kulagin concluded.