Turkey is fighting at four fronts

The head of the Heinrich-Böll Foundation in Istanbul, an expert of the German Foreign Policy Society, Kristian Brakel, told Deutschlandfunk about his vision of developments over Turkey. “For a long time, the rhetoric of Ankara was absolutely decisive. They said the PKK was a greater problem than Daesh. Of course it is a reflex which takes its toll. The military elite in Turkey developed the position long ago. And now they are beginning to realize that both threats must be eliminated, as terrorist attacks in Turkey are committed by both sides,” Brakel commented on the beginning of a land operation against Daesh by the Turkish army. According to Brakel, the problem of Turkey lies in its different interests. “Turkey has a problem with terrorism committed by the PKK groups, as well as by Daesh; and it is difficult to combine these issues. Ankara publicly stated that it stands against any forms of terrorism. Meanwhile, these two groups are quite different. For example, the Turkish government could make peace with PKK in Turkey, but of course it is impossible, if we speak about Daesh,” the expert said.

Brakel believes that to prevent further advance of PKK in Syria, the Turks need to attract America on their side. However, they have failed to achieve that. The political scientist noted that the strategy of Daesh is directed at destabilization of Turkey from inside. “Many terrorist attacks, including the recent one in Gaziantep, were primarily directed against the opposition (primarily the Kurdish opposition). This is a strategy when terrorists try to use the existing political tension and to escalate it.” Brakel is sure that “if Turkey provides a policy on peacemaking, even though it is difficult and the PKK is also responsible for the current conflict, it will encourage normalization of the situation in the country.” “The current situation is a war at four fronts. And Turkey won’t cope with that in a long-term prospect,” the expert predicted.

Kristian Brakel also touched on changes in Ankara’s rhetoric on official Damascus. “In general, the attitude to Bashar al-Assad’s regime remained the same. Ankara believes that Assad must leave. It thinks the war must be over, and al-Assad’s regime is the main reason for continuation of fights. I think they are wrong. However, over two months, a turnaround could be seen in the Turkish foreign policy. They began to realize that first of all, they need to provide a security of their own borders, and Turkey which has wide-scale problems with refugees from Syria faced a pressure test. That’s why they are ready to close eyes on some factors,” Brakel said.

“Today, for the first time in five years, the Turkish side said that President al-Assad could stay for a transitional period. Many Western forces began to stand for this. However, they still can’t admit that al-Assad could stay in power – Russia and Iran stand for this course. Turkey is approaching the Russians and the Iranians intensively. This week, President Erdogan will probably visit Tehran. However, differences in interests are still great, and I am not sure Turkey will achieve something there – Turkey is very dependent on others, including Saudi Arabia. Of course Turkey cannot become too close with Iran without irritating the Saudis,” Kristian Brakel concluded.