Another alarming signal for Merkel

The Land of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is a relatively small area in north-eastern Germany with a population of just 1.6 million people. However, it attracted the attention of the 80-million country last weekend. The elections to the state parliament, which took place on September 4th, in advance were described by many observers as a litmus test for the Merkel government. And not only because the electoral seat of the Chancellor is located in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. A year after Merkel proclaimed the optimistic slogan ‘Wir schaffen das’ (‘we will cope with it’), which marked the open-door policy towards refugees from the Middle East, the former traces of optimism are no longer observed in Germany. As a result, there is a rapid rise of the far-right party ‘Alternative for Germany’, which has become a political platform for many citizens who are dissatisfied with the policies of the traditional parliamentary parties for one reason or another.

The debut of ‘Alternative for Germany’, which had never before participated in the elections to the local parliament, was more than successful. The party won more than 21% of the vote, finishing second after the Social Democrats (just over 30%), and pushing the CDU (19%) into third place. In comparison with the results of the last election five years ago, the Social Democrats lost 5% of the vote, and the Christian Democrats – 4%. It is ironic that from the economic point of view, the reign of the CDU and the SPD in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania was quite successful. Over the last five years the land’s economy markedly increased (GDP increased from 36 billion in 2011 to €40 billion in 2015) and the unemployment rate fell from 12.5% ​​to 9%. Also, the debt burden on the federal land has been reduced by about 10%. That is, the figures show a stable economic development of the region, which is not disputed even by the most ardent political opponents of the ‘grand coalition’.

That is, it is not only about the economy. ‘Alternative for Germany’ has based its campaign on a general dissatisfaction with the German Government's migration policy and people’s sentiment has intensified i society. The number of refugees exactly in Mecklenbur-Western Pomerania is very small, which is why the local municipalities have solved peacefully the problem of their resettlement and no social conflicts and problems have yet been observed in this regard. However, this phenomenon can be observed in Saxony: despite the fact that it is home to only 4000 Muslims, it is in this land that the most massive "anti-Islamic" movement in Germany PEGIDA has occurred. It should be noted that, as in Saxony, as well as in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, far-right trends are traditionally quite strong. By the way, the local state parliament is the only one in Germany where the neo-Nazis from NPD have been represented since 2006.

As the pollsters note, many supporters of the NPD and people with right-wing views, for whom the neo-Nazi party is too radical, voted for ‘Alternative for Germany’. As a result, we are seeing a symbiosis of the right populist electorate with the rest of the discontented voters who are disappointed with the parties of the traditional political mainstream, represented in the Bundestag, for whatever reasons.

It should be noted that the elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania are the latest blow to the ruling ‘grand coalition’ (CDU/CSU and SPD) in general, and to the positions of Chancellor Angela Merkel in particular. The first ‘yellow card’ was given to the ruling elite by the voters in the elections to the state parliament of Baden-Württemberg, where ‘Alternative for Germany’ gained more than 15% of the vote. According to opinion polls conducted recently, at the federal level this party would win about 12% of the vote at the moment, claiming to be the third most popular party in the country.