Libya: five years without Gaddafi

This week marks the fifth anniversary of the death of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, who was killed on October 20, 2011, during the attack on Sirte. Since that time, the situation in this country remains extremely unstable. It is fueled not only by internal conflicts, but also by the actions of international terrorist groups - Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, Ansar al-Sharia and Daesh. Due to the vulnerability of borders and the lack of effective security structures terrorists easily get into Libya and leave it just as easy. 

Senior lecturer of the Political Science Department of the HSE, Grigory Lukyanov, recalls that in December of last year agreements on the new policy of reconciliation in Libya have been signed in the Moroccan city of Skhirat: "The Government of National Accord was created, a person who is willing to work with this government was found. The official architect of this security system, new model of settlement, was Special Representative of the UN Secretary General on Libya, Martin Kobler, who is still making titanic efforts to turn the situation in Libya in a different direction. The Government of National Accord moved to Tripoli in March of this year, a large-scale campaign against Daesh in the territory of modern Libyan state was launched under its auspices. But the prospects of this government are even more vague, and the conflict has transformed and enters its next stage. Unfortunately, the concept of The Government of National Accord has demonstrated its own vulnerability. when Fayez Sarraj's office moved to Tripoli, it found out that it has no military power on the ground and that it cannot defeat Daesh. Its only option was to ask existing armed groups for help."

Martin Kobler

"The only power that this government could use were military brigades, which previously worked under the General National Congress, and Libya Dawn grouping, which united Islamist groups in the north-west of the country. They became a pillar of this government, so it launched a campaign against Sirte, controlled by Daesh. It was also supported by foreign countries, primarily European and regional - Algeria, Egypt. They managed to seriously damage Daesh in Libya, limiting the territory under its control and making it suffer severe military casualties. Nevertheless, the political crisis became even worse because of this, because the process of accepting the Government of National Accord as the only legitimate platform for political settlement has been stalled," the expert believes.

Prime Minister of the Government of National Accord of Libya Fayez Sarraj

"In September of this year we saw how military troops of the Libyan National Army, now under the control of Marshal Khalifa Haftar, have seized a number of oil ports, seized control of these territories and are now actively negotiate with Egypt, with the Russian Federation. They want to get military aid and political support to lift the embargo and the restrictions on supplies of weapons to the country, in order to get full control over Tripolitania, which implies that the initiative on creation of the Government of National Accord will fail. Today, this government does not have a single defense minister and it is ready to recognize Khalifa Haftar as the minister," Lukyanov said.

According to him, external actors, in particular the United States, won't intervene in these conditions, considering that elections will be held very soon: "In the framework of the election campaign, Libyan topic is the last thing Democratic Party will address, because it will damage the positions of its candidate. Minimal actions of the United States create conditions, under which, on the one hand, the conflict is developing, and on the other hand, it encourages other countries to promote the settlement. But the resources of these countries are very limited. Current settlement models are becoming obsolete faster than we manage to fix it."