Dark clouds gathering above Karabakh again

We had alarming news from the most painful point of the South Caucasus - Nagorno Karabakh. According to recent reports, three Armenian servicemen were seriously wounded in clashes broke out on December 1.

Even after the bloody April clashes, when the Azerbaijani army has taken control of several checkpoints and strategic heights, previously occupied by the Armenian side, as a result of the counterattack, it became clear that the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict threatens to move from the state of "no war, no peace" into a new, more violent and intensive phase. Only the Kremlin's active intervention helped to stop the April battles and re-seat the parties to the conflict to the negotiating table. However, it has been eight months since then, but there are no changes in the negotiation process. It is still unknown whether the meeting of the Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan will be held in the OSCE area in Hamburg. The fact that the aggravation on the front line occurs when the next round of talks is being preparing is probably not accidental. The experience of recent years has shown that almost always the intensity of clashes in Karabakh has escalated on the eve of meetings between the Presidents.

Despite the fact that the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is one of the priorities of the Russian foreign policy in the region, as reflected in the recently approved foreign policy concept of the Russian Federation, today Armenia and Azerbaijan are far from peace as never before. Both countries are in the top 5 European countries on the level of militarization (military spending in relation to GDP).

It is obvious that Armenia, after suffering a local, but a very painful defeat for the authorities in Yerevan in April of this year, will not miss the opportunity to strike back. After the April clashes, which cost Armenia more than a hundred soldiers and dozens of heavy armored vehicles, the country's military and political leadership, been replaced almost completely, including the Minister of Defense Seyran Ohanyan and the Prime Minister Hovik Obramyan. Since then, the country has received from Russia new weapons in the framework of preferential loan, audited the army, and will attempt to rectify the situation at the front in its favor at every possible opportunity. For Serzh Sargsyan and his supporters, who came to power in the "Karabakh wave", it is vital to demonstrate to their own people that they firmly hold Karabakh in their hands - this is probably the only and rather shaky pillar on which the current Armenian authorities rests.

The Karabakh issue plays an extremely important, if not decisive, role in both the domestic and foreign policy of Azerbaijan. It would be a rough and dangerous mistake to believe that the country could reconcile with the existing state of affairs for more than 20 years of occupation of the fifth part of its own territory. Even despite the significant reduction in budget revenues due to falling oil prices, Azerbaijan does not save on 'defense industry' as a matter of principle: a major contract for the supply of arms from Pakistan has been signed recently, the Azerbaijani-Russian military cooperation is actively developing. Israel, Turkey and Iran are also among the countries where Baku continues to buy weapons - by diversifying sources of supply of military products, Azerbaijan tries to irrevocably change the regional balance in its favor.

Even Iskander missile systems, which were demonstrated at the military parade in Yerevan on the occasion of Armenia's independence, did not confused Baku. They understand that their use in the case of local operation is unlikely: if the Armenian side starts to use Iskander missile systems against the Azerbaijani capital and strategic points in the country, than the Azerbaijani Army's missile systems already cover the entire Armenian territory. In addition, there are serious suspicions that Armenia will be control the demonstrated Iskander missile systems, because missiles were driven to a military parade by Russian soldiers.

As a result there is an extremely dangerous situation. According to the hard and contradictory statements from Baku and Yerevan, we should not wait for a diplomatic solution to the conflict. At the same time, each party is tempted to "punish" the enemy by successful military operation - even of a local scale. If Azerbaijanis repeat the April success, they will achieve the steel negotiating positions, which will have to be considered by both Armenians and mediators. If the Armenian side intercepts the military initiative, Sargsyan's regime will reinforce its own legitimacy and will be able to continue its tactics of delaying negotiations.

But a third scenario is even more likely, when the losing party does not accept another defeat and a full-scale war breaks out, from which both nations will lose, and its results will be used by external powers - to strengthen their influence in the geopolitically important region in Russia's "underbelly". It will be a fatal error  for Russia if it loses Azerbaijan and / or Armenia as the result of a new war, as it "lost" once its closest countries - Ukraine and Georgia. The region urgently needs a long-term, stable discharge, the foundation of which can be de-occupation of the Nagorno-Karabakh, followed by resuming the Azerbaijani-Armenian economic and political ties.

The intensification of relations between Moscow and Ankara, the progressive convergence of these countries in the Syrian issue gives us hope that it will have a beneficial effect on resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Turkey could play its creative role in the peace process, in parallel with the de-occupation of Karabakh, opening the border with Armenia. As long as the South Caucasus is clamped in the grip of historical traumas and geopolitical conflicts, this region will be a potential hotbed of chaos at the borders of the already troubled Russian Caucasus. There are always going to be those who want to drop a lighted match into a powder keg.