American analytical magazine The National Interest (TNI) released a forecast about the likely start of World War III. Having examined the situation in different regions of the world, trends - both regional and global, taking into account the likely economic situation in different parts of the world, the National Interest experts identified the most dangerous flashpoints.
The first place TNI gave to the South China Sea. This place has become wrapped into the clash between the U.S. and China. As relations between Washington and Beijing deteriorate and there is a virtual lack of the leaders' willingness to start a dialogue, which can lower political temperature and put a sedative scenario in the agenda, the authors of the analytical forecast predict that the conflict will simultaneously grow and spread, and is able to move in highly dynamic manner beyond tariff disputes, export-import pressure and economic sanctions in general. It’s not worth talking about anyone's advantage, let's just hope Washington and Beijing will show political will, and, putting their vanity aside, will sit down at the negotiating table and start settling accumulated differences
Another dangerous place in the world is Ukraine. If the world's attitude toward the sluggish conflict in Donbas was generally calm before, and it was used by the West as a lever of pressure on both Moscow and Kiev - to a lesser extent, the recent incident in the Kerch Strait forced to look at this situation differently. Especially given Kiev's inconsistent threats and actions towards Moscow. TNI admits that the Kerch Strait incident could well get out of control, leading to unimaginable consequences, which, fortunately, were avoided. However, tensions around the strait persist, and the Ukrainian side is even trying to force it. At the same time, there are no signs of Russia's compliance in this matter. The situation is very alarming and it's criminal to underestimate it. At the same time, according to the American magazine, Russia seems to lack any interest in disrupting the status quo ahead of the Ukrainian presidential elections.
"Given the continuing tensions between Russia and the United States, even a small shift could threaten the uneasy balance that has held for the last several years, potentially throwing Eastern Europe into chaos," TNI warns.
Another explosive region is the Persian Gulf. And it did not crop up yesterday or today, being a likely hotbed of conflict and turmoil for many years. Today, the situation in the Gulf area is alarming. Tensions are rising as Washington’s economic pressure on Iran continues to increase, the Syrian conflict continues and the war on Yemen shows no signs of abating. The Persian Gulf has lost its "informal status" of the main potential flashpoint not because the situation improved, but because things got a lot worse in the South China Sea and Ukraine.
And vice versa - due to certain positive shifts in relations between the United States and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the Korean peninsula has seemed less daunting in terms of stability than, say, six months ago. The authors of the analysis are far from considering the situation as completely normal, but prospects of peace are brighter now.
At the same time, TNI urges not to delude ourselves - "flashpoints" can arise any moment anywhere, and the near future holds greater dangers than the recent past.
For a certainty, the forecast is made in time for the New Year holidays. A "promising" one, giving hope in humanity and that reason will prevail over whims.
A military observer of the TASS news agency, Viktor Litovkin, urges not to treat the TNI analytical article with the utmost seriousness. "Any speculation about the third world war is utter nonsense. If the United States, Russia or China are involved in this war, and it's not a world war without them, then nuclear weapons will be used at some point. Which would mean the end of civilization. There are no idiots in the leadership of these three countries. There can be any kind of hysteria, statements, threats, ultimatums, etc., but none of sane people would start a world war. Conflicts - yes. But believe me, neither NATO nor the U.S. will cover up for, let's say, Ukraine: making a noise - yes, but debarking troops - no. Their soldiers and officers are worth a lot more than Ukraine for them," Viktor Litovkin told Vestnik Kavkaza.
According to the expert, with regard to the Persian Gulf, there may be conflicts, as well as in the Middle East in general. But none of them will become a world war. "Let us recall how the Americans reacted when the head of the Russian General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov warned them that if even one rocket hits the Russian specialists, Russia will hit the missiles and the carriers of these missiles. The Americans shot at military targets in Syria without hurting the Russians. It could happen in the South China Sea as well. Demonstrations of power — yes, but nothing more. And it happened before, when the three carrier groups approached the shores of North Korea, when Donald Trump promised Kim Jong-un to turn his government into dust. So what? Nothing. They hung out off the coast and went home - the risk of getting hit by American troops in South Korea outweighed all the threats. Therefore, one can write anything one wants, but I think that the third world war projects don't mean very much," Litovkin believes.
