Perhaps, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has never faced with such tremendous internal and external pressure during her entire political career, as it happens today. Several factors greatly complicate the political situation for the head of the German government, and a prospect of saving the post of the chancellor after the 2017 elections to the Bundestag seems rather vague for her.
So, a referendum will be held in the UK in several weeks, during which the inhabitants of the kingdom will take a decision to exit or to stay within the EU. A possible exit of the UK , in the opinion of many observers, will be fatal to the whole Union and, above all, for the Federal Republic of Germany. If the British leave the European Union, it will inevitably reinforce the eurosceptics already gaining power. Moreover, such a decision may encourage many other EU member states to bring new conditions and to demand preferences for them, putting Berlin in a vulnerable position. A withdrawal from the Union of a powerful industrial nation, which is undoubtedly the United Kingdom, will also significantly reduce the EU's geopolitical significance. Finally, the presence of the Great Britain in the union was reassuring many countries, fearing the growing German hegemony. In this regard, the government of Germany, led by Merkel, ideologically firmly tied to the idea of the united Europe, risks facing a serious challenge in the near future.
The second major problem with which the government of Angela Merkel yet is not able to cope, the influx of the refugees from the Middle East. The migration crisis has shaken the position of the CDU, for which only 33% of voters are ready to vote now (in the autumn of the last year the party was supported by more than 40% of the Germans). The respite that Berlin received due to the closure of the ‘Balkan route’ and the relative calm in Syria is temporary. Meanwhile, in the Greek Idomeni and the Serbian-Hungarian border, where thousands of refugees continue to arrive, extremely difficult, if not catastrophic humanitarian situation develops. The hopes for a long-term and civilized solution to the refugee problem connects Berlin to a deal with Turkey. However, the dialogue with Ankara is now facing an impasse: President Erdogan refuses to revise the anti-terrorism laws in the country, urged by the Europeans, pushing it as a condition for the introduction of a visa-free regime with Turkey this summer.
The Turkish leader, in his turn, threatens to reject the refugee deal with the EU, obviously realizing that Angela Merkel is now in a very vulnerable situation, both in domestic and foreign policy. However, Berlin can hardly swallow the bitter pill of Ankara- more than 77% of Germans believe that Merkel in any case should not ‘sag’ under the requirements of the Turkish President, even if the deal on refugees is on the stake. A possibility of adoption a resolution recognizing the 1915 events in the Ottoman Empire as a ‘genocide of Armenians’ by the German Bundestag spoils significantly the climate in the German-Turkish relations.
Finally, the Ukrainian conflict is still far from a decision, as well as a degradation of the German-Russian relations linked to it. The idea of ‘democratization’ of Ukraine and transfer to the ‘European values’ is lame in terms of practical implementation, a frustration with the lack of pace of the reform of the Ukrainian economy and strengthening of the role of the oligarchic elements are clearly seen at the level of the mainstream media and the experts’ assessments. The spoiled relations with Russia are the bottom line, and there is rather a problematic partner in the person of Kiev. The economic embargo imposed by Russia against the European agricultural producers in response to the anti-Russian sanctions has left its mark: the prices for dairy products have collapsed, the dairy producers have appeared in a serious crisis.
Angela Merkel is in a difficult situation now, she is under pressure on the right and left flanks, and what is much more important, the level of support reduces in the ranks of her own party and traditional electorate. However, we should not forget that Angela Merkel, who is taking the office for a third time, has a good political instinct. She has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to show the necessary firmness in the crisis situations, and to compromise, when it is necessary. It is too early to discount Frau Chancellor, but she has not too much time to offer new recipes. So far Germany still hopes for Merkel in resolution of the problems that appeared, which in itself is not a bad sign for Merkel. Whether she will be able to justify them before the 2017 elections is an open question, and the answer is not only in Germany.
