Armenian crisis provokes psychological tension in Karabakh

The political crisis in Armenia has significantly weakened the republic, which could not but affect the situation on the Nagorno-Karabakh line of contact. The mediating countries of the
peacekeeping process are closely monitoring the situation in Yerevan, fearing an unforeseeable outcome that can catalyze irreversible consequences on the firing line in Karabakh.

Transcaucasia remains difficult region in geopolitical terms, and the people living close to it are sensitive to any political turmoil of their neighbors. The crisis in Armenia is complicated by the fact that the republic de facto remains at war with Azerbaijan over Karabakh, despite the current truce. However, at the moment, diplomatic restraint is observed in the relations of the republics. There are no calls in Azerbaijan to take advantage of Armenia's political chaos, thereby resolutely solving the Karabakh problem by force. On the contrary, the Azerbaijani public, especially the people of the older generation, watch the events in Yerevan with trepidation, since they understands the danger of an unregulated political process in conditions of high politicization of the population. Fears are linked to an unpredictable course, followed by the Armenian opposition.

Proceeding from the opposition's rhetoric, Pashinyan is shaking the domestic political situation, especially since there are forces in the republic that are interested in escalating the crisis. Several points important in terms of security should be noted. During all the meetings and demonstrations, Pashinyan has not even mentioned the situation in Karabakh, which is very ambiguous due to the intense negotiation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan. By the way, the security problem of Armenia and Karabakh was former president of Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan's argument that he should hold the post of prime minister. Nevertheless, Sargsyan failed to prove his indispensability to the Armenian people, since during the last 10 years of his tenure as head of the republic he became one of the extremely unpopular figures of the republic's political establishment, which was used by the opposition.

It is important to pay attention to the fact that the Dashnaktsutyun party, known for its nationalist rhetoric and irreconcilable stance towards the Karabakh issue, withdrew from the ruling coalition with the Republicans, and joined the opposition. Although the current events in Armenia are not connected with the change in Armenia's foreign policy, the Dashnaktsutyun revolutionary movement is oriented to the West, and the Yelk party even put forward an initiative for Armenia's withdrawal from the EEU. While the crisis is in full swing, no one wants to make hasty steps, but it is obvious that the situation can be painful for Russia. For this reason, a meeting of Russian diplomats with leaders of the protest movement was organized to clarify the issues of Russia's military presence in Gyumri and Armenia's initiatives to withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union and the CSTO.

Why are international observers worried? The leadership of the unrecognized "NKR" published video footage showing that the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan are drawing military equipment to the borders of the occupied regions. Thus, the authorities are warning the Armenian public that a possible split of the society as a result of the crisis threatens the security of the unrecognized "NKR" and Armenia. However, it should not be assumed that the Azerbaijani authorities will take the risk of a forceful solution of the problem due to tension in Armenia, an atmosphere of national arousal that threatens the resumption of full-scale military actions on the contact line in case of provocations.

The current political chaos in Armenia is being condemned in Armenian society. The recent sharp condemnation of protesters by academician of the Academy of Political Sciences, professor of MGIMO, Andranik Migranyan, alone is enough to earn the title. See VK Andranik Migranyan called Armenian people part of ochlocracy, rabble and dirt.