The fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh has ended after 44 days. The Russian-brokered cease-fire agreement last week brought an end to Armenia's three-decade occupation of Karabakh. At the same time, it was agreed that Russian peacekeepers be deployed to the region and Turkey would serve as an observer to monitor the cease-fire. Turkey and Russia continue to discuss how the cease-fire and the withdrawal of Armenian troops will be monitored, Daily Sabah writes in the article Armenia’s defeat may be new window of opportunity.
The latest war in the South Caucasus, which Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian started, led to major changes in the region's geopolitical map. Let us note that the Karabakh war was the first interstate conflict to be won with armed drones. In other words, the use of armed drones in a conventional war took military technology to the next level. By using its Turkish-made drones, Azerbaijan changed the course of that conflict. According to Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev, armed drones inflicted damages of over $1 billion on Armenia's military. Thousands of Armenian troops perished in drone attacks. As such, the 44-day war in Nagorno-Karabakh opened a new chapter in the history of warfare.
What did the world encounter when the fog of war dissipated after 44 days? Azerbaijan emerged as the clear winner, as the government in Baku liberated its occupied territories after 30 years.
It remains unclear how Armenia, a country facing serious financial and social turmoil, will overcome such a great loss of property and lives. Secondly, Armenia's national values have been notably undermined in the Karabakh war. That country's education system and history books have long glorified the Nagorno-Karabakh region, telling Armenian children that the occupied Azerbaijani lands were almost sacred. The loss of that territory, after three decades, will amount to a political and social earthquake in Armenia.
Indeed, we have already seen that earthquake's precursors in Yerevan, where the local population was bewildered by the cease-fire agreement. According to media reports, an assassination attempt against the Armenian prime minister was foiled last week. The chaos is expected to prevail until Pashinian, the man responsible for the Karabakh war, agreed to step down.
Going forward, what should Armenia do? Until today, the government in Yerevan implemented a destabilizing regional policy, occupying Azerbaijani lands and refusing to de-escalate tensions with Turkey. Armenia not only fueled instability but also failed to reap economic benefits. With the Armenian occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh coming to an end, a fresh window of opportunity has emerged before Yerevan.
Armenia and its neighborhood stand to benefit from a normalization of bilateral relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. To make that happen, Armenia's official ideology must be normalized as a first step. To start a new chapter, Yerevan must kick racism, nationalism and ideologically charged statements out of its history books.
