The terrorist attack in Istanbul, which caused the deaths of 10 tourists and injured another 15 people, has had serious political and economic consequences not only in Turkey, as its tourist image was damaged, but also abroad. The fact that almost all the deceased and injured people were tourists from Germany caused a lot of questions and speculations in the FRG.
For example, journalists and politicians are trying to understand whether the choice of German tourists was a conscious one by the terrorists. Many people recalled in this context that in early December 2015 Germany joined the military coalition against Daesh and sent its Tornado sensor aircraft to the zone of hostilities. It is unclear whether there is a connection between the two events. However, the Minister of Interior Affairs, Thomas de Meiziere, who arrived in Turkey right after the Istanbul bomb attack, noted at a joint press conference with his Turkish colleague that there was no evidence that the terrorists acted directly against Germans. The German minister stressed that the terrorists intended to sow discord between the partners, but that they had achieved the opposite result: “Germany and Turkey will stick together even closer after the tragedy.”
Thomas de Meiziere also stated that, despite the terrorist attack, there were no reasons to refuse to journey to Turkey. However, according to the minister, German citizens should listen to the recommendations of the German Foreign Ministry: to avoid big crowds and not to visit regions which are neighboring Syria. At the same time, many people don’t believe the pacifying speeches by the Interior Ministry: German tourist companies announce cancellations of bookings in Turkey; some tourists are cutting their trips short and returning to Germany.
According to the official statistics, Turkey is the favorite place for Germans’ vacations. 4.51 million tourists from Germany visited the country in 2014. In 2015 the number fell to 4.22 million (due to terrorist attacks and the escalation of hostilities against the PKK). It seems the Syrian suicide bomber in Istanbul will scare away many people who prefer to vacation in Turkey. Meanwhile, Germany, as well as Russia, is a major provider of tourists for Turkey. Now it will be very difficult to substitute the 'import' of Russian tourists with Western tourists, which was Ankara’s plan after the crisis in the relations with Moscow.
According to German experts, the bomb attack in Istanbul will lead to a final reconsideration of Ankara’s policy on the Daesh terrorists. Markus Kaim from the Berlin Fund of Science and Politics says: “In the past, Turkey provided a zigzag policy on the terrorist group, considering it to be its tactic ally for overthrowing Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Today it has fallen into oblivion for two reasons. Firstly, Daesh is destabilizing Turkey itself, and last year's terrorist attack and the bomb attack in Istanbul confirm this, if we believe the authorities, which state that the terrorist attack was committed by Daesh. Secondly, the international pressure on Turkey grew on the issue. The US sent clear messages to Ankara, for example.” Today, according to Kaim, Turkey takes a firm position in the Western alliance against Daesh. The expert reminds that German Tornado aircraft fly from Turkish air bases as well.
A German Islamic studies scientist, Wilfred Buchta, the author of the book ‘The Terror at the Gate of Europe: Islamic State, the Dissolution of Iraq and the Disability of America’, thinks that Turkey has absolutely reconsidered its attitude to Daesh. The terrorist attack which was committed by extremists against Turkish Kurds played a big role as well. According to the expert, Turkey failed to resist the pressure by the US and Europe, which insisted on a more active fight against the terrorists of Daesh, and since October 2014 the terrorist group has been following its own way. Buchta fears that in the future there will be more terrorist attacks in Turkey.
Meanwhile, many experts were surprised by the fact that the Turkish authorities announced that the suicide bomber belonged to Daesh so quickly. A well-known Middle East expert, Michael Lüders, doesn’t believe in the version of the Turkish authorities. “It is fascinating, how quickly the authorities managed to find out that the terrorist attack was committed by a Daesh terrorist, when there was no information even about the number of victims,” Michael Lüders says. The expert thinks that a Kurdish trace is more probable: the bomb attack could be revenge for the operation by Turkish special services in the southeast of the country. “The attack on the tourist industry of Turkey is directed at decreasing the budget revenues of the state. This was a blow to the heart of Turkish politics, after the shot-down Russian military aircraft led to the disappearance of Russian tourists in Turkey,” Lüders thinks.
