Campaigning on the constitutional amendments is to be completed in Armenia on midnight on December 4th. The ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) has created a propaganda headquarters headed by Prime Minister Hovik Abrahamyan. The Government has decided to grant about 3.7 million dollars for the preparation and holding of a referendum. The Republicans continue to assure society of the need for constitutional reform aimed at creating a more progressive form of government. Recall that the project involves a move from the current presidential-parliamentary to a parliamentary republic. The officials promise to make every effort to ensure fair and transparent voting in the national referendum on December 6th.
The head of the RPA parliamentary faction, Vahram Baghdasaryan, who is in charge at the campaign headquarters of the party, said: "We have to organize a referendum so that there are no vulnerabilities, since this process is followed by all the international community."
But the opposition insists that the adoption of a new constitution is aimed at reinstalling the current authorities. The opposition and experts have expressed concern that approval of a parliamentary form of government in an unstable party system may lead to political instability and even chaos. According to the vice-chairman of the radical opposition party ‘Armenian National Congress' (ANC), Levon Zurabyan, the referendum will lead to a polarization of society: "There is nothing else we have than to force the government to abandon the referendum and ruin the process by rallying the people.’’
The evidence-based opposition claims of inflated voter lists and that, despite the reduction in the country's population, the number of voters has been growing steadily, is creating tensions on the eve of the referendum on December 6th. In particular, the ANC party has engaged seriously in studying the electoral roll. According to the secretary of the parliamentary faction of the ANC, Aram Manukyan, in the study of preliminary voter lists in two districts in Yerevan of Arabkir and Shengavit, there were found a lot of people with the same name. "In both districts, the electoral rolls were replenished with three thousand voters, which is unprecedented. We also examined the number of voters with the same names. For example, ‘Hovhannisyan Gayane’ was found on the lists 38 times, ‘Harutyunyan Anahit' – 37 times, ‘Grigoryan Armen’ – 36 times, ’Anahit Sargsyan’ even 51 times. And all this in only one constituency.
"In general, names are repeated in up to 20-22% of the electoral rolls, thus there is the theoretical possibility of one voter voting over 50 times,’’ Manukyan noted. According to him, today the number of voters in Armenia is 2.6 million. After 2008, the number of voters has been constantly growing, and if in other countries the ratio of voters to the population is 67% on average, in some regions of Armenia the figure is 85% and even 91%.
It should be noted that today the opposition is represented by several columns. There is, first of all, the backbone of the ‘No!’ Front, represented by the ANC party, and the civil initiative ‘You Won’t Fool Us!’ controlled by the ANC and the People's Party of Armenia (PPA) led by Stepan Demirchyan. These forces take the most consistent position on the issue of constitutional amendments and campaigning in the regions. However, the resources of the opposition cannot be compared with the resources of the government
Some parties and organizations, while formally remaining a part of the ‘No!’ Front, have created the association ‘New Armenia’. The ‘Heritage’ party, the socio-political organization ‘Constitutive Parliament’ and other entities included in the new association continue to oppose the constitutional changes, while putting forward radical slogans about regime change. According to the leaders of this association, it is necessary to prevent the holding of a referendum through a change of power. To this end, on December 1st the initiative ‘New Armenia’ plans to launch street protests and calls on the population to take part in civil disobedience.
In turn, the initiative ‘You Will Not Fool Us!’ and the party NPA and the ANC, who refused to join the new front, indicate the priority of the fight against the constitutional amendments, considering the struggle for regime change being late, and most importantly – unrealistic, considering the variances between the government and the opposition.
Representatives of a third column in the person of the Joint Political Council, including five small parties and a number of NGOs, although busy with useful work on the analysis and a detailed study of the project of the new Constitution, are not taking any practical steps.
All the processes around the constitutional amendments are focused on the level of political forces, and society continues to remain aloof from the process. While citizens are passive and most of them do not show any interest in the constitutional amendments, or the campaign. The reason for the passive attitude of society is the number of unresolved social problems. The indifference of the citizens is also due to lack of faith in the electoral process and the diffusion of the opposition political field.
This important process is like a game between two opponents followed not by fans, but by indifferent observers. This circumstance is not only a serious problem for the opposition, but also alarming for Armenian society. We only hope that this passivity is of a temporary nature.
