Russia closed its borders, Kazakhstan and Armenia imposed a state of emergency. Belarus and Kyrgyzstan - in isolation. Communication between the countries that are members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is virtually discontinued. The authorities of several countries of the integration association announced the cancellation of festive events, including their May Victory Parades. Moscow parade on Red Square on May 9 does not plan to cancel.
For the EAEU, as well as for other post-Soviet countries, the coronavirus was a challenge. Restrictive measures will only be tightened if the epidemic fails to quickly curb. The Eurasian Economic Commission (ECE) announced its readiness to develop joint measures to combat the spread of coronavirus. According to Mikhail Myasnikovich, Chairman of the EEC Board, the epidemic is already affecting freight traffic and the movement of goods flows. There were problems associated with monetary policy.
ECE, at the request of Armenia, decided to nullify import duties on medical products that are used to prevent and control the spread of coronavirus. In the coming days, a list of necessary medicines will be agreed.
At the suggestion of Kyrgyzstan, a working group will be formed to take operational measures and exchange information in order to ensure macroeconomic stability, mutual trade and freedom of movement of labor in the EAEU in the context of the spread of coronavirus.
Mikhail Myasnikovich believes that countries should not be limited to themselves. "We agreed to exchange information not only on measures to combat the coronovirus, but also on monetary policy and migration," Myasnikovich said. In his opinion, the closure of borders - Russia with Belarus; Kazakhstan with its neighbors can negatively affect and is already reflected in the trade and economic relations of countries.
Advisor to the Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan Kubat Rakhimov believes that the situation is alarming. “As the experience of the European Union (EU) has shown, all integration associations are at risk of relative disintegration literally in a few days, when national borders are closed, the movement of people is limited, and the movement of goods is partially limited. At least three sectors automatically suffer: transport, tourism and the labor market The restrictions that Moscow and Nur-Sultan have imposed now hit the workers from Kyrgyzstan who work in Russia and Kazakhstan, as well as neighboring countries - Uzbekistan Thane and Tajikistan, "- said the" Bulletin of the Caucasus "Kubat Rakhimov.
For various reasons, many citizens of these countries had to return to their homeland, but they cannot for a simple reason - they do not want to lose their jobs. However, the migration regime in each country is not subject to regulation by the EEC and will have to agree on a bilateral basis so as not to violate the law for those EAEU citizens whose term of stay has ended, but they do not want or cannot leave.
“A blow to the EAEU has been dealt, but the association will stand. There are no systemic reasons for the organization to cease to exist. Moreover, the regime for strengthening control over the movement of individuals is more borderline and does not quite fall under the competence of the Eurasian Economic Commission. If it is not decided the issue of extending the terms of stay of the EAEU workers, this may lead to certain difficulties, but I think that the countries will agree so that people can freely extend their stay in the territory of ugogo EAEC state ", - said Rakhimov.
The double crisis - epidemiological and economic - makes it possible to rethink many approaches to Eurasian integration. According to Rakhimov, it would be possible to more carefully coordinate their activities at the ECE level. In a pandemic, each country proceeds from its own interests, and only secondarily from the interests of an integration association. On the one hand, this is the right of a sovereign state to act either in advance or, on the contrary, not to force any extraordinary measures.
But Rakhimov believes that there should be coordination of the fight against the virus and the manifestations of the economic crisis, the main thing is to enable people to save their jobs, and ensure certain stability and other support measures for business. “Here the insufficient level of coordination on the part of the EEC is shown. But it was possible to show the true nature of the supranational body - the EEC - in front of a common threat, a common misfortune. But it so happened that the regime of combating coronavirus and the manifestations of the economic crisis that exists in Kazakhstan super-rigid. Belarus and Kyrgyzstan are in the least severe regime. The Russian Federation has so far approached these issues situationally and precisely. Therefore, I believe that at the EEC level it was possible to work out a general mechanism of mobilization, a mechanism of deep the interacting "- said Rakhimov.
According to him, in the same Kyrgyzstan, the service sector is suffering greatly, everything related to entertainment - restaurants, cinemas, etc. Bishkek is not in vain called the unofficial gastronomic capital of Central Asia, there are more than 5 thousand cafes and restaurants. A ban on events and restrictions on the activities of those food service outlets with more than 50 seats will hit the business hard.
The tourism sector is also suffering. The summer season, although far from it, is essentially already a failure - there have been massive rejections from hotel reservations, from trips to Issyk-Kul.
The general crisis will cause a noticeable decrease in the consumption of resources and in general goods due to falling incomes. And this is the second wave of a blow to business within the EAEU. While food manufacturers hold on. In a sense, this is the result of a panic - the population rushed to make food stocks and in the future will continue to make purchases of necessary products with a stock.
The fall in oil prices was very inappropriate, and the subsequent devaluation of the Russian ruble as a key player in the EAEU. The process of devaluation of national currencies has begun in Kazakhstan and other EAEU countries. This, in turn, will affect the dollar performance - the volume of trade between the EAEU countries in dollar terms will fall, although in physical terms they may not change much.
There should always be a plan "B", the option of maintaining the gains with the least losses, Kubat Rakhimov believes. During the ECE Intergovernmental Council, which took place on March 16 in the mode of videoconference, certain measures were worked out. The next meeting of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council with the participation of the Prime Ministers of the EAEU countries will be held in Minsk on April 9-10, possibly also remotely, but it will be very important. “I want to believe in the best that in April the situation will change and the peak of the crisis will be passed. And it’s completely symbolic - if on May 9, on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the Victory, the presidents of the CIS countries and friendly states would gather on Red Square. Then, probably, on May 19-20, the leaders of the five EAEU countries will not be prevented from checking the clock in Minsk at the Supreme Economic Council and adopting the EAEU development strategy until 2025.
