The Syrian crisis and war with ISIS, as a result of which hundreds of thousands of refugees from the Middle East have flooded the European Union, are forcing European politicians to reconsider their relations with Russia. Perhaps even at the expense of Ukraine, the geopolitical struggle for which has caused an acute crisis in relations between the West and Russia. Not so long ago, one of the experts of the think-tank DGAP, who is a part of the German government circles, Stefan Meister, expressed a similar opinion in his recent article. We recall, that according to the expert, the increased Russian military activity in Syria is a step which will help to strengthen the negotiating positions of Russia in the bargaining with the West, particularly on the Ukrainian issue.
The statement of the Minister of Economy of Germany, leader of the German social democrats Sigmar Gabriel, which followed on September 25, suggests that Meister was not far from the truth in his analysis. As the publication Die Zeit reports, Gabriel, commenting on the current situation in Syria, suggested lifting the sanctions imposed against Russia. "We will have to change our relations with Russia," Gabriel stated. "It is quite obvious that you cannot, on the one hand, impose sanctions for a long time, and, on the other hand, ask for cooperation." According to the German Minister, "other, better relationships" with Russia may begin with the construction of the second pipeline, and their logical conclusion would be the abolition of the sanctions regime. "The Ukrainian conflict must not harm relations between Germany, Europe, the United States with Russia so much that we lose it as a partner in Syria," the politician believes.
Gabriel noted that if Russia will strengthen its military actions in Syria, the conflict will grow, making even more people flee. Die Zeit emphasizes that Gabriel indirectly spoke in favor of the abolition of anti-Russian sanctions without linking it to the completion of the Minsk Agreement. It is also obvious that by "the construction of a second pipeline," the German Minister was referring to the gas pipeline bypassing Ukrainian territory – not very bright prospects for Kiev, especially given the fact that such a proposal was made by its ally, the Berlin government.
But the German government itself, created on the basis of a coalition, as we know, is not monolithic. The Social Democrats, represented in the government by such prominent figures as Sigmar Gabriel and Frank-Walter Steinmeier, following the traditions of Ostpolitik, are ready for a constructive dialogue with Moscow. At the same time, the CDU party, led by Angela Merkel, is in favor of more active development of the trans-Atlantic vector in foreign policy. How the situation develops further is quite difficult to predict, but it is already clear that the crisis caused by the influx of refugees has once again laid bare the fault lines within the German political establishment. And if Moscow manages to play delicately on the contradictions within Europe and the Middle East crisis, then it will have a real chance of achieving a de-isolation, while maintaining strong positions in the negotiations on Ukraine.
However, it should not be forgotten that if the sanctions against Russia are cancelled so obviously, without considering the interests of Kiev, the image of the current Ukrainian government, as well as the EU, in the eyes of ordinary Ukrainians, who are already disappointed with the social policy of the authorities, will be seriously hurt. This will inevitably push Ukraine towards restoring the balance between Russia and the West, which will return Russia and the West to the initial geopolitical situation before the 'Euromaidan' and raise the question of the expediency of this project of the West. Moreover, if Berlin lifts the sanctions imposed against Russia without progress in the Ukrainian issue, there will be a logical question – why were sanctions even introduced? The cancellation of the anti-Russian sanctions would become, on the one hand, a recognition of the failure of the political line originally selected by Berlin and Brussels in relation to the Russian Federation, and on the other hand, the inability of the politicians of the 'Euromaidan' to defend the national interests of Ukraine. So if Europe will take such political decision on restoration of normal relations with Moscow, it will be necessary to make great efforts to avoid embarrassment. And, obviously, this will be impossible without painstaking negotiations with Ukraine and, perhaps, favors of a symbolic and financial character.
