In an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza German political scientist, professor Wilfried Furman outlined three possible scenarios that the South Caucasus may face during Donald Trump's presidency. Furman initially notes that his forecast is based on the assumption that new US president won't turn into a typical mainstream republican and will at least try to reach a limited fundamental consensus with Russia. According to expert, based on the existing trust, modern Caucasian borders of Turkey, Russia and Iran are mutually guaranteed. Possible expansionist plans of three powers of the region (Iran, Russia, Turkey) lack any basis, however such danger can't be completely ruled out.
"If in the future Russia continues to protect the Armenian border in the region, the United States will act as guarantor of Georgia's present borders. Perhaps in case of 'ethnic cleansings' both guarantors will intervene and thus ensure 'the resident right' of each party. This is a mutually accepted protection of interests and assets of each of the nations," the expert believes. According to professor, in order to turn the South Caucasus region into a "sanitary cordon", the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict should be resolved. It is likely that it won't be resolved in the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group. Furman described possible solutions that would require to break certain "taboos" in the current state of "no war, no peace".
First scenario. Both world powers, Russia and the United States, will acknowledge current borders of the three South Caucasus republics and will let Armenia and Azerbaijan themselves deal with the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiation process and the situation with seven occupied regions (even if it will require possible military actions). This doesn't automatically mean that this issue will be resolved through military means, but military option (even in a limited form) won't allow Armenia to completely reject any concessions.
Second scenario. Both powers will support the concept of "separated" Nagorno-Karabakh (and possibly other occupied Azerbaijani provinces), taking into account past 20 years of conflict, remaining property issues and issues of rights of those born during the course of the conflict. Under such scenario, Russia and the United States will insist on determining new borders and will be active moderators during the negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan on this issue. In this case, they will basically cut the knot without recognizing existing front-line borders from the point of view of international law.
Third scenario. Insisting on the creation of full fledged South Caucasian Federation seems impossible, taking into account the existing historical experience and current tense situation. However, the creation of neutral federation with joint police forces, freedom of movement and residence for citizens of the three countries could become a possible solution. In this case, the United States and Russia would act as guarantors of external borders of the entire federation, not borders between each country. The entire disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region would become a separate unit in the framework of this federation with structure based on quotas (Armenians and Azerbaijanis receive 50% of parliamentary seats and ministerial portfolios, for example). This way there will also be a lot of free resources for the economic development of the entire South Caucasus.
Wilfried Furman
"Of course, none of the options will completely satisfy all sides. It is impossible and it should not be expected. What I described above are only concepts of possible compromises." But considering the current state of the conflict, deaths and injuries in the course terrible clashes, as well as the age of exiled people and very limited life choices of younger generation, changes are urgently needed at least for humanitarian reasons. They are also necessary for legal, social and economic reasons. In my opinion, there are many people in Azerbaijan (and not only there) who want a peaceful coexistence between the two peoples," he believes. According to expert, it's a big plus that all above mentioned scenarios rule out the possibility that events similar to those that occurred in the Arab countries will develop in the region. "The world will become more stable, and the US will be able to devote themselves to internal development," the expert thinks.
"During his election campaign, Donald Trump relentlessly looked at the state of economy and large regions, including infrastructure and living standards of people living there, so I hope that he will look at the situation in the Caucasus and the entire world openly and without taboos," he noted.
