Germany has closely monitored the recent elections to the Russian State Duma. The views of the European political and expert elite on the political situation in Russia are traditionally critical, and in this respect the perception of the parliamentary elections was no exception. One of the most influential German experts on the former Soviet Union, Stefan Meister, has published an article dedicated to the recent elections to the Russian State Duma. A political scientist from the German Council on Foreign Relations notes that the low turnout (less than 50% in Russia and less than 30% in Moscow) shows the inability of the parties to motivate the electorate and weakens the legitimacy of the future Duma. According to Meister, low turnout was initially taken into account by the Kremlin and has contributed to the fact that "the elections were not out of control."
The legitimacy of the State Duma will decline as a result of the low voter turnout and the absence of a "real opposition" in the parliament's composition, the expert believes. At the same time, in his estimation, "the real opposition", in which he classifies the 'Yabloko' party and the initial single opposition candidate Mikhail Kasyanov (Parnas), had no chance in the elections. This is connected both with the compromising material about Kasyanov shown on the NTV channel and the Russian opposition's fragmentation, as well as the lack of interaction between the liberals and the broad masses of the population.
The uncompromising management team of the extra-systemic opposition, along with the shortage of new, not "wasted" faces, underlines the deep crisis and the insignificance of the opposition. Stefan Meister also notes that the restrictive measures taken at the legislative level in Russia after 2012 (for example, regarding the financing of NGOs from abroad and the binding of observers to a particular electoral area) significantly complicated the election monitoring process, including for journalists. Separately, Meister notes the fate of the non-governmental organizations 'Golos' and 'Levada', the activities of which were restricted.
The German expert believes that the Russian political system is being increasingly "sharpened" under President Vladimir Putin, whose rating has not fallen below 80% since the annexation of Crimea to Russia. Putin's personal contribution to preserving and legitimizing the existing political system in Russia is growing. After distancing himself from 'United Russia' and transmitting it to the loyal Prime Minister Medvedev, Putin also avoided the impact of negative attitudes towards the party on his own popularity.
Stefan Meister believes that the current Duma elections are a test preparation for the presidential elections in 2018. The expert believes that nothing has changed dramatically in the critical socio-economic situation, which has been observed since 2011-2012. On the contrary, in his opinion, the situation in Russia is exacerbated because there is no sustainable economic model, and the variety of possible actions in the economy has declined against the backdrop of lower returns from the sale of oil and gas and endangered foreign exchange reserves. At the same time, the German expert does not see any willingness for changes of the Russian authorities, despite the increasing pressure from the public and the elite. The expert sees the Russian authorities' response to such pressure in foreign policy actions and measures aimed at preventing possible attempts at a coup; in particular, Meister notes the creation of the National Guard, subordinated directly to the President.
