The initial situation in the upcoming political elections in Armenia and Azerbaijan is characterized both by similarities and differences. In the South Caucasian republics, there is a problem of the too strong executive power. Therefore, the ruling parties and their candidates have much better starting positions than the opposition parties, and can also use actively the state media in their election campaigns. As in the course of the recent presidential elections in Russia, this factor affects negatively the equal competition in the pre-election race, political analyst Heiko Langner from Berlin told Vestnik Kavkaza, answering the question about the pre-election situation in Armenia and Azerbaijan.
"In the case of Armenia, the elections are linked to the constitutional amendments coming into force, through which the country wants to transform from the presidential to the parliamentary republic. The candidacy of incumbent President Serzh Sargsyan, who after two presidential terms can no longer run for president and wants to become the Prime Minister instead, shows, however, that the amendments to the Constitution are just a ‘beautiful wrapper.’ In fact, Sargsyan will remain a decisive authority in the country thanks to the new post that he prepared to himself. This has nothing to do with democracy but is a clever move to strengthen the personal power. Perhaps, the best chances for democratization will arise after the era of Sargsyan's reign comes to an end someday. In any case, we should not expect any kind of new policy from him.The largest problem of Armenia is the hopeless economic and social situation.The young population is often highly qualified, but despite this, many young people leave the country due to a lack of prospects for the professional growth. Sargsyan has no answers to these questions. In order to answer these challenges, he must demonstrate the greater readiness to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, because of which Armenia is in a regional isolation. Sargsyan, himself a native of Nagorno-Karabakh and a former military leader of the armed groups of Karabakh Armenians, assumed the political power due to this conflict only. Unfortunately, there is little evidence that he will be able to resolve this conflict, since the possible concessions on the Karabakh issue may threaten his political positions.
Presidential elections in Azerbaijan are also characterized by the signs of the preservation of the current government. However, there are other reasons for this. Despite the declining revenues from the energy sales due to the decline in the oil prices, the economic and social situation in Azerbaijan is still much better than in Armenia or Georgia. Over the past 10-15 years, a growing middle class has appeared in Azerbaijan, while the level of poverty has decreased significantly. This means that the policy of the authorities is not that wrong in this direction. The result of it may be, rather, an increase in the population's desire for stability, which, in turn, supports the political stance of incumbent President Ilham Aliyev. Moreover, the opposition candidates can hardly offer the alternative concepts in the economic sphere. For this reason, the opposition candidates have focused on criticizing the government's foreign policy, since it has not yet secured the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in Azerbaijan's interests. However, such a criticism is not very convincing. Azerbaijan is located in a complicated foreign policy space between Russia, Iran and Turkey, and at the same time must not only assert its position in the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement but also protect increasingly its secular state structure from the external influence.
In the economic sphere, the main task for the next few years will be a further reduction of the energy exports dependence. The real estate market, especially in Baku, is also too ‘swollen’, which causes the effect of the social exclusion, since many people can not afford an apartment in the relatively central areas of the city. In general, the highly profitable production chains, the processing industry and the technologies of the future should be developing intensively. The incumbent head of state can resolve these issues. Thus, he remains a certain leader in the upcoming elections.
The OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights and the Council of Europe have agreed to observe the elections, and this can also help to restore the confidence in the political elections in Azerbaijan lost in recent years if there are no serious violations. In general, I would like to wish both Caucasian republics the most democratic and peaceful elections. "
