The parliamentary elections, which the majority of serious experts already call ‘the most unpredictable in the history of the country’, will be held in Georgia on Saturday. Since the first democratic elections, held on October 28th 1990, a situation with a likely outcome of the vote has never been more complicated and intriguing, with an admixture of a non-cinematic thriller. An attempt to murder one of the leaders of the opposition party ‘United National Movement’ (UNM), Givi Targamadze, three days before the election alone is enough (See VK: Saakashvili’s right-hand man was blown up three days before the election). If the fuel tank had detonated after a powerful explosion, the parliamentary elections would have been held with a storm of protests at the funeral of a deputy and one of the closest associates of the former president.
However, not such incidents, including frequent fighting in the regions, make the upcoming elections ‘difficult to predict’, but a strange fact that a large as never before number of citizens refuse to answer a classic question of the sociologists: "Who would you vote for, if the elections were held tomorrow? "
About 60%(!) of Georgians prefer not to answer this question - or say ‘I have not yet decided", or refer to the ‘anonymity and intimacy of choice.’
It is difficult to say why it is so. Perhaps, it happens due to the uniqueness of the figure of Mikhail Saakashvili, remaining almost the main actor on the Georgian political scene, despite fleeing the country in 2013 - the very next day after the expiry of his presidential term, and in spite of being employed in another country. The third President of Georgia lost the Georgian citizenship long ago by taking the citizenship of Ukraine, where he works as the head of the Odessa Regional State Administration.
One of the properties of Saakashvili as a politician is that he does not leave people indifferent. His is either hated or loved in Georgia. And both the haters and lovers can be within the same group of friends or relatives. Maybe that's a reason why such an abnormally high percentage of respondents try to hide their preferences.
They may be as ‘against’ as well as ‘for’ Saakashvili. Hence, the abnormal results of the different surveys, conducted by the quiet respectable sociological services.
For example, the US-German GFK with a reputation of one the most respected rating agencies in the world, predicts that the party of Saakashvili will receive 26% of votes and the ruling 'Georgian Dream' (GM)- 25.4%. It is clear that the sociological gap is 2-3% in either direction, but lets compare this result with a conclusion of another, no less respected sociological agency TNS: 36% for the GM and 13% for the UNM!
The sociologists are forced to use different technologies in conditions when the respondents refuse to answer. This includes the method of allocation, defined by a leading question "Who would you not vote for in any case?, or the method of analogy, when a real outcome of the vote during the previous elections, and a percentage of undecided are taken in account. GFK and TNS have applied different methodology, and only the real outcome will tell which of them was more relevant.
A forecast becomes such a difficult and risky issue, that the US NDI even has refused to publish its opinion, referring to the fact that it is impossible to make a reasonable forecast, when there is such a high percentage of undecided (or hiding preferences).
In the political terms the upcoming election will be a choice not between Saakashvili and the GM founder, a billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, but ‘for’ or ‘against’ Mishiko. A billionaire, despite his patronage of art and a lot of good deeds (a multi-million dollar program of a free treatment of hepatitis B alone is enough), does not have even a tenth of charisma of the irrepressible ex-president.
Speaking from Odessa to the participants of a mass pre-election rally, Saakashvili promised ‘to cross the Black Sea to reunite with beloved fellow citizens’, although four probable causes were filed against him in Georgia, and he was charged with embezzlement, as well as with abuse of power. Recently, the Interior Minister Georgi Mgebrishvili threateningly warned, that as soon as Saakashvili steps on the Georgian land, he will be arrested immediately. And Deputy Prime Minister Kakha Kaladze said that the most comfortable camera in the Tbilisi prison has been prepared for the ex-president.
The main intrigue of the forthcoming elections is that even if the UNM is not going to win, it will enter the parliament from the ‘second place’, and create an influential, numerous faction in the parliament. Saakashvili and his colleagues will have enough political talent and tricks to use this resource and make the authorities cease the prosecution of the former president and return the Georgian citizenship to him, that is, the prospects for a legal participation in the political life of Georgia.
The ‘Georgian Dream’ will face a serious choice. Georgia is a parliamentary republic under the Constitution, and it will be difficult for the ruling party (at least from the point of view of image) to work and develop ties with the EU in conditions of a constant obstruction, boycott and accusations by the main opposition force. Moreover, by the party, which is quite legitimate and important from the point of view of the EU and US. No Western country has neither put Saakashvili on the wanted list, nor even refused a visa for him, despite the numerous requests from the Georgian Prosecutor General's Office.
