Federal elections were held in Germany on Sunday. They had a serious foreign policy significance for Moscow, as it is a leader country of the European Union, which, despite the current sanctions, remains Russia's main trade partner.
The results of the vote were disappointing for Germany's two largest "people's parties", the CDU and SPD, which were in the ruling coalition. Despite the fact that Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) remained the country's largest political force with 33% of the vote, compared with the results of 2013 (41.5%), the ruling party has lost much of its former popularity. It is not just an "alarm bell" for Angela Merkel and her team, but an extremely tough and probably last warning from voters, who are extremely dissatisfied with the Chancellor's too soft migration policy. In addition, Germany's society is tired of seeing Merkel as unchanged since 2005 Federal Chancellor of Germany.
The situation is even worse with regard to the Social Democrats: the return of former President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz to German politics did not save the SPD from further downfall. In comparison with the elections of 2013, the party lost 5.5% of the vote, slumping to a post-war low of 20.6%. Yes, the Social Democrats are still the second most popular political party in the country, but it is worth recalling that during Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's time in office, the SPD played in the "big league" and even stepped over the psychological mark of 40%. It is noteworthy that after a disastrous election result, Martin Schulz does not plan to resign from the post of party chairman. Schulz also said that the Social Democrats will not continue the coalition with the CDU and will go into opposition. Thus, the rule of the so-called "grand coalition", in which cabinet positions were distributed between the CDU, the CSU (CDU's sister party in Bavaria) and the SPD, has come to an end.
The Free Democrats (FDP), led by its young charismatic leader Christian Lindner, was the winner of the previous elections in the Bundestag. The FDP gained 10.6%, strongly improving the result the disastrous 2013 elections, when they could not overcome the 5% barrier to enter the Bundestag. A coalition between the FDP, the CDU and Greens is the only real option for the creation of a coalition government.
By the way, the Greens, which gained 9.1%, are also quite happy with their result. Their rating even slightly increased in comparison with the 2013 elections. It is likely that the Greens will participate in the formation of the coalition government, but it is already clear that coalition negotiations will not be easy - there are too many ideological contradictions between the left-wing Greens and business-oriented Free Democrats.
The Left party showed approximately the same result as in the 2013 elections, gaining 8.9%. There is no doubt that the Left, as always, will stay in strong opposition to all other parties, which are also reluctant to join for a coalition with them.
Finally, the far right Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party is celebrating its historic success. Having received 13% of the vote, it became the third largest party in Germany. The AfD has won the most votes in the German eastern states, which were part of the GDR before the reunification of Germany. In the east of the country, Alternative for Germany gained about a quarter of votes, becoming the most powerful political force in the region. But it has no chance of cooperating with other parties in the Bundestag, which sharply criticize far-right positions of the AfD.
As noted above, it is most likely that the coalition will consist of the CDU, the Free Democratic Party and the Green Party. In Germany, this coalition is called 'Jamaica', because the colors that symbolize these three parties (the CDU - black, the FDP - yellow, and the Greens - green) coincide with the colors of the Jamaican flag. Regardless of the outcome of the coalition talks on specific items, with such a coalition improving of German-Russian relations is not going to happen. The withdrawal of the Social Democrats from the government, which traditionally favor closer cooperation and dialogue with Moscow, will probably strengthen the positions of the informal "transatlanticists faction." Moreover, the Greens within the government will inevitably force a human rights theme in relations with Moscow. The FDP, which leader Christian Lindner supports the easing of sanctions over Crimeaagainst Russia, would certainly be not enough to make corrections to Chancellor Angela Merkel's already well-known position. And one should not lose sight of the fact that the main package of European sanctions is related not so much to the Crimean issue as to the situation in Donbass.
