The situation in Hong Kong is far from normal. Over the weekend, protests will be held in various areas of Hong Kong, and the largest, obviously, will be held on Hong Kong Island. According to the estimates of law enforcement agencies, the Civil Front for Human Rights that initiates and coordinates the rallies intends to bring almost half a million people to the streets.
The situation is alarming because one of the demonstrators' applications for the march was rejected by the authorities for security reasons, the law enforcers report. Thus, nothing is yet known about the opposition’s refusal to perform this part of the planned action. This is why the situation can become even more explosive.
So, the opposition ‘did not hear’ the calls of the authorities and moderate politicians to refrain from actions leading to an escalation of tension. It also ”did not read" the appeal of the largest and richest Hong Kong businessman Li Jiachen. His call, "Love China, Hong Kong, and Yourself!" was published on the front pages of all the leading Hong Kong newspapers. Li Jiacheng, whose fortune is estimated by Forbes at more than $ 30 bln, recalling that "the road to hell is paved with good intentions," emphasizes that "the government heard the protesters, who voiced their discontent loud and clear, and now zealously puzzles over resolving the issues, "and so it's time to ”change anger to love" and ”stop the violence.” But there was no success.
The opposition, having achieved concessions from the authorities, decided to continue the pressure. Does appetite grow with eating? Or is it a big boost for the opposition to indirectly put pressure on Beijing, which so far is keeping aloof from the events in Hong Kong? For what reason? To make life harder for Beijing, enjoying its existence while other world players can not get out of the economic turbulence? Maybe. Especially if we remember the long-standing permanent irritation of Washington with Chinese successes and the official expression of concern about the growing influence of the Middle Kingdom. There is also a visible similarity of the events in Hong Kong with the “color revolutions”, which the American intervention affected to a varying extent. The authorities make the concessions required by the opposition, but the opposition, as if not seeing them, toughens and expands their demands. In Hong Kong, the protests began in early June because of the planned adoption of amendments to the extradition law, which allows the extradition of suspected offenders to mainland China. Under pressure from the protesters, the authorities abandoned this idea, but now demonstrators are demanding the resignation of the Hong Kong administration head, Carrie Lam, as well as a response by the authorities to abuse of power by police during the clashes with protesters. If Beijing is thoroughly drawn into the Hong Kong processes, nobody will be able to predict the consequences. At least because there is a great danger of the protest sentiments, but this time not in successful Hong Kong, but less prosperous regions of China.
First of all, it is about the activation of separatist groups in Tibet and Xinjiang. On the whole, Beijing successfully solved the problem of separatism not only with regular proactive actions to isolate such groups and crushing separatist sentiments but also with huge financial injections into these economically problematic regions. But now such actions may lose its effectiveness.
Beijing’s intervention in Hong Kong is just as bad for Beijing as non-intervention. Hong Kong is not Xinjian. Here, the financial injections are meaningless: what are they for? But something will probably have to be done. Sitting and pretending that nothing is happening is becoming harder every day - the motto "Hong Kong is not China" has already appeared in the rebellious city, and it sounds louder every day. Does it make sense to help the local administration by force? It is also pointless - the local administration seems to have enough resources. Waiting until the demonstrators are exhausted is also a bad idea, as Chinese people’s patience in achieving a particular goal is well-known. That is, the current destabilization may become protracted, and this will be fraught with the aforementioned aggravation of the situation in the troubled regions that may be inspired by the riot in Hong Kong. Making concessions to the opposition is dangerous for the same reason. And there are no guarantees that after the resignation of Carrie Lam and punishment for bad police officers, the Civil Front for Human Rights will not come up with something new. But Beijing does not have time for ‘endless waiting’ hoping that the opposition will get tired and the situation will settle down by itself. Only a month and a half is left.
October 1 will mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. Beijing counted on a powerful self-PR, demonstration of its amazing successes to the whole world, and the promotion of its global super projects. Seething Hong Kong crosses out all these stirring plans and raises many questions. And the main one is how vital is the idea or formula One country, two systems, implying China’s relations with Hong Kong. as long as with Macau. At the moment, it turns out that the contradictions between the two systems are very deep. That deep that they raise doubts about the validity of the first part of the formula. It becomes impossible to join two systems with different perceptions of freedoms. And this means the collapse of Beijing’s policy of One country, two systems.
It is hard to imagine that in order to equalize the freedoms of power, the authorities will decide to impose restrictions on expression of will, freedom of speech or even the Internet in Hong Kong to the level of China, where almost 80% of the world's network resources are accessible only by "cunning" actions. Any hints of toughness will undoubtedly result in an explosion in Hong Kong, its alienation and such a headache that Beijing will climb the walls.
In the field of freedoms, only one direction of movement is possible - bringing freedoms in China to Hong Kong’s level. But it is hard to imagine the consequences, when the nuts will be put out in the Middle Kingdom, especially amid the unprecedented US pressure. And in any case, this process is long. Indeed, the month and a half remaining before the anniversary celebrations are not enough.
However, Beijing will never recognize the actual ideological defeat on the eve of the 70th anniversary of the state. Everything possible will be done to keep Hong Kong silent by October at least for a while. And this depends on the willingness to negotiate the protest movement leaders. Perhaps they are directly dependent on the influence of external players. If this dependence is excessive, the June Fourth Incident may recur amid subsequent accusations and sanctions of the West. Although today's China is economically incomparably more powerful than China 30 years ago, tragic deja vu is the least desirable scenario for Beijing. Especially on the eve of the 70th anniversary of the PRC.
