The economic situation in Kazakhstan is as difficult as it is in Russia. Moreover, Astana and Moscow will face the need to work in the context of election campaigns in 2016. Of course, the parliamentary elections are not as crucial as the presidential elections, but still there are certain risks.
Ak Orda made a principle decision to hold parliamentary elections this spring, considering the unfavorable forecasts about the probability of a further fall of oil-and-gas prices and decreasing social indices. The decision is quite reasonable, if it isvgoing to be adopted finally. However, obviously there will be no serious changes in the parliament’s composition, because last year only formal changes took place in the sphere of the party construction. There will be a competition inside parties for a position in party lists. Speaking about Nur Otan, this will be the most serious competition between groups of influence, which really influence the process of candidate selection.
Russia will have a more lively and interesting campaign, especially in the regions of Siberia, the Urals and in the Northwest.
Regarding the economic situation, the wide-scale program of privatization which has been declared by Ak Orda may cause interest on the part of investors. However, it is a big question how attractive the majority of assets which are put up for sale are from the economic point of view, especially considering the current attitude of investors. The strategy of buying assets in a falling market is beneficial when the depth of the fall is understandable. And in this issue there are more guesses than reasonable analyses by experts and officials. So, we can expect that problems with the attraction of investors will continue. And there are not so many free resources in the internal market. Moreover, the situation in the banking sphere is also unclear.
It seems there are sufficient reserve resources to support basic social projects by the end of 2016; but it will be possible only if oil prices grow to $40-45 by the middle of the year. Nobody can say whether the hopes are justified or not.
Speaking about personnel changes, a new wave is possible after the end of the election campaign. The key issue is who becomes the new speaker of parliament. At the same time, not all top officials feel absolutely safe in the government and the national companies. The economic bloc will be in the center of attention during the whole year.
In general, the year will be not only difficult, but also indicative. Kazakhstan, Russia and Azerbaijan managed to hold on in 2015 due to their reserves and savings. However, while reserve funds are reducing, the question about the effectiveness of the current management system and the acuteness of the chosen development strategies is rising. By the end of the year there probably be an answer to the question of what model has turned out to be more adapted for the challenge of the “perfect storm.”
