If they have a most-troubled-republic contest, Kyrgyzstan would be one of the contenders to win. Few of the first persons manage to serve the constitutional term, and few of high-ranking officials manage to become a long-liver in the office. Lately, the situation seemed to be more optimistic, but in reality the situation in Kyrgyzstan is far from being serene and the republic is moving towards turmoil again.
Director of the social research company SIAR Ainura Sagynbayeva recently presented a study of public sentiment conducted by its institute. They can not but disturb the authorities. The optimistic expectations that prevailed in Kyrgyz society in the last 5-6 years have been replaced by discontent, disappointment and irritation: "There is a tendency that preceded the 2005 and 2010 events , that is, the "Tulip Revolution" and the new revolution that ended in President Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s flight from the country." In addition, the rating of the Prime Minister and his Cabinet fell to a record low in the history of modern Kyrgyzstan.
According to reports from Bishkek respondent of Vestnik Kavkaza, the tension in the society increases gradually, but noticeably. People are disappointed, revolutionary sentiments are no longer hidden, and discontent with power is growing. The people are especially annoyed by the fact that the widely advertised campaign anti corruption went up in smoke. Instead of the promised "we will break the back once and for all," they are fighting corruption selectively, and if you look closely, in some cases political motivation is evident. Experts say that there has never been such a weak government in the country, despite the fact that no strong one can be remembered either: the most authoritative of the current Cabinet of Ministers - Finance Minister Oleg Pankratov resigned, what to talk about here?!
Political analyst Mars Sariev, commenting on the situation in Kyrgyzstan, told Vestnik Kavkaza that "the mobilization actions of the southern guys are noticeable." "There are many Bakiyev's people in power today. Including in the entourage of President Sooronbay Jeenbekov. These people have never been passive. I remember President Almazbek Atambaev warned that those times may come back. In one of his last speeches, already as an ex-president, he repeated the theses about the danger of returning 'Bakiev's times,' leading the state to the Khanate of Kokand. Most likely, riots in Kyrgyzstan may start in the autumn. The authorities need to change the policy. While there is selective fight against corruption, resentment will only grow. Another split on the principle of 'north' - 'south' of Kyrgyzstan is already clearly visible to those with knowledge of local political games," Mars Sariev said.
Observers cite iftars - charity dinners during the holy month of Ramadan, which are held in Russian cities on behalf of the fugitive ex-president of Kyrgyzstan as indirect evidence of the "mobilization of the southern guys". He does not cross the Russian border himself, perhaps he is afraid of being detained, staying in Belarus, where he settled after being forced to leave his homeland. Informed sources told Vestnik Kavkaza that 500 citizens of Kyrgyzstan participated in the iftar in Moscow - mainly labor migrants, almost as many or even more - in Ekaterinburg and Novosibirsk, and over 100 people - in St. Petersburg. Iftar is a godly thing, but experts are inclined to believe that they have started a process of bringing Bakiev’s supporters closer together.
On April 7, 2010, the clashes between the authorities and the opposition protesting against the government in Bishkek resulted in the death of 80 people, which eventually caused another Kyrgyz revolution. President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who fled from Kyrgyzstan, took advantage of President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko's hospitality and settled in this country. In Kyrgyzstan, Bakiyev and his brother were sentenced in absentia to 25 years in prison and a life sentence, respectively. The brothers did not admit guilt and declared themselves persecuted for political reasons. They never hid hopes of returning to Kyrgyzstan. At the same time, Kurmanbek Bakiyev was visible neither in politics, nor in public life, nor in the press, and if he was, then either in connection with past events, or in conjunction with someone else.
Informed people told Vestnik Kavkaza that there was nothing out of the ordinary in Bakiyev's iftar - it was not the first one. But the current ones are the most crowded, and wishes of Bakiyev's companions to return to Kyrgyzstan and rule there were heard on a massive scale perhaps for the first time there. Experts believe that if Bakiyev succeeds in consolidating at least part of Kyrgyz migrants, he will be able to deliver tangible inconveniences to the authorities: according to the latest data, at least 1 million 200 thousand people left Kyrgyzstan - it's a serious number. And while clarifying relations with his predecessor Atambayev became a matter of President Zheenbekov's life (at least it looks like this) , the real danger may come from the other side.
