On August 20, German Chancellor Angela Merkel will pay a working visit to Moscow. This is Merkel's last trip to Moscow in this capacity. In September, Germany will hold elections to the Bundestag, after which Frau Kanzlerin will no longer head the German government. Before leaving, Merkel will hand over the reins to her successor. It is clear that the candidacy of the new chancellor depends on the results of the elections, and theoretically he could become a "green" politician, but Merkel hopes for the best, that is, that after the vote the CDU will win and the chairman of the ruling party Armin Laschet will be the chancellor.
Over the 16 years of her rule, Merkel has shaped a new trajectory of German foreign policy, where the priority is relations with the United States and European solidarity. With regard to Russia, the chancellor showed pragmatism and until recently tried to avoid open confrontation, both during the five-day war with Georgia in 2008, and after high-profile political assassinations and assassinations, in which the German media accused the Kremlin. If her predecessor from the SPD, Gerhard Schroeder, cultivated the national interests of Germany and was ready at times to go against NATO and the United States, as during the invasion of Iraq in 2003, Merkel acts with an eye on Brussels and Washington.
The reaction of the German press to the coming to power in the White House of Donald Trump is indicative. When the American began to question the future of NATO and demanded that Germany increase military spending in order to "relieve" the United States, the German media noted that from now on, the leader of the Western world is Merkel. The Chancellor has had a hard time over the four years of Trump's rule, including Bannon's support for the AfD and other rightists, sanctions against Nord Stream 2 in December 2019, and the partial withdrawal of American troops from Germany. At the same time, Merkel understood that with a sufficiently restrained and passive foreign policy, without the support of the United States, Berlin would not be able to become the leader of democracy and impose its will on North Africa, Asia, the Middle East, not to mention Russia and China. So Joe Biden's victory in the fall of 2020 was a salvation for the chancellor.
To a certain extent, pragmatism towards Russia made it possible to neutralize Berlin's pro-Atlantic course, which aroused mistrust and wariness on the part of Moscow. The language factor also added positive and calmness to Russian-German relations. It is known that Merkel speaks fluent Russian, and Putin speaks German. At least two politicians had an understanding of mutual interests. But everything was changed by Euromaidan in Ukraine in 2014. In the Russian expert community, there is a well-established idea that an American NGO and the American government are behind the coup d'etat in Ukraine, and Germany is hostage to the discord sown by Obama between Putin and Merkel. It is difficult to say whether it is true or not. The American presence in Germany is strong. These are not only military bases in Ramstein and other places, but also intelligence, NSA dossiers on German politicians, and much more. In fact, the EU's support for the revolution in Ukraine did not occur contrary to Germany's opinion, even if Joe Biden said that the United States forced Europe to impose sanctions on Russia.
One way or another, the change of the pro-Russian regime of Viktor Yanukovych to the anti-Russian one, the war in Donbass, the de facto separation of the DPR and LPR from Ukraine and the incorporation of Crimea into Russia brought Russian-German relations to the point of no return. The "red lines" for Merkel have been passed. The Chancellor found herself in a situation where she had no choice, and it was impossible not to react. Germany saw in what is happening in Crimea a gross violation of international law. Berlin was under tremendous moral pressure, both from Obama's influential ally and from the partners in the European Union - Poland and the Baltic states, who had a personal dislike for the Russian leader.
At the same time, we must pay tribute to the Chancellor for being able to defend Nord Stream 2 at a time when almost all NATO countries asked Berlin to block the construction of a gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. Even in the toughest days of the opposition's confrontation with the authorities in Russia, during the poisoning of Alexei Navalny - then, by the way, even members of the CDU and the German government were in favor of sanctions against Nord Stream 2, Merkel refrained from hasty actions. Probably, for this, Putin still respects Merkel and carefully chooses his words when it comes to the chancellor. In June 2021 - at that time Germany's sanctions over Crimea and criticism of Navalny's arrest were relevant - the Russian president called Merkel a "reliable partner."
Although the Ukrainian conflict undermined the Russian-German partnership, the dialogue between Berlin and Moscow has never been interrupted. The solution to the Ukrainian crisis still relies on the relationship between the Russian and German leaders. There is no US in the Normandy format. Merkel understands that Crimea cannot be returned, but expects that Ukraine will at least be able to regain control over two regions - the DPR and LPR. It is obvious that it is unrealistic to implement this plan until September. Indeed, even yesterday, in the spring of 2021, a full-scale conflict was planned in the east of Ukraine with the participation of the Russian Armed Forces. However, over time, if the ceasefire continues, there is a chance of progress. Perhaps Merkel in Moscow will make one last attempt to find common ground with Putin on Ukraine in order to accelerate the 7-year-long peace process. From there, she will go to Kiev, where she will convey her wishes to Vladimir Zelensky.
The visit to Moscow will also become a symbol of the remaining pragmatism between the FRG and the Russian Federation, which Merkel inherits from Lashet. And it is symbolic that the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will be completed by this time, which will bring the economies of the two countries even closer. The partnership between the two countries does not end with the gas pipeline and Ukraine. Merkel will leave Lachet a legacy of the issues of the Iranian nuclear deal, climate, Palestine, Libya, Syria and much more, where Moscow and Berlin can find a common language.
